After a strong bullish rally that placed both the Dolar blue like financial exchange rates in new nominal records, the truce came and this Wednesday they fell. With which, volatility is the order of the day and there is already movement within financial flows seeking coverage. While the Government ruled out an eventual devaluation in order to reduce the gap, the market is not yet convinced.
The expectation of a lower reserve accumulation in the face of lower purchases of Central Bank (BCRA)the lack of certainty about when and how the embargo will be lifted stocksthe exchange rate lag that promotes the “crawling peg” at 2% per monthare other concerns that are added in this context and the demands towards the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputothey are getting bigger and bigger.
A report from the consulting firm 1816 showed that between last Thursday and Friday the Common Funds dollars linked They had the higher flows throughout 2024. On the other hand, it was evident Strong volatility on the Matba-Rofex futures marketand there was a large amount of funds seeking to dollarize via MEP, with a record volume in the AL30 immediately counted. All this leads to one conclusion: the market is looking for coverage.
Strategies according to the investment horizon
Paula GándaraCIO of Asset Management at Adcaphe told Ámbito: “In general terms, for us in the very short term 1 or 2 months, we believe that Lecaps will continue to be the best alternative. Friday’s announcements are in line with deepening this model and continuing to bet on a greater deceleration of inflation.”
For a horizon of between 2 and 5 months, the expert chose the CER bondssince this strategy seeks coverage against “the risk that inflation begins to show rigidities below 4%”. For 6 months or more, it is only when Gándara sees that The market begins to hedge against a change in the exchange rate regime“a trend that could spread if policy limitations appear.”
“We look favorably on starting to positioning itself in dollar linked (DL) bonds, such as TV25. Since May 15, DL bonds have been yielding better than the Lecaps“, explained Gándara and added: “In the fund map, we are already beginning to see some relevant flows in the foreign exchange hedging FCI. In our case, We recommend the Adcap Fixed Income Fund, which has inflation-dollar coverage.and is mainly composed of Lecaps, UVA, DL, fixed rate and liquidity.”
Strategies according to the investor’s profile
Francisco MartinCEO of Take Investmentsin conversation with this medium, said that, for the conservative investor If you want to maintain the value of your dollars, a good alternative is to choose a Cedear of low volatility, such as Coca Cola (KO); given that “This allows us to maintain a dollarized portfolio with a stable asset from the American market.”
On the other hand, he mentioned that “for the investor who thinks that the dollar reached a ceiling in the short term, Lecaps are the best option. Finally, investors who are more experienced and risk-averse, and see the dollar not rising further, can do a strategy with Galicia shares, buying puts and selling calls, with which you can obtain a rate of up to 100% with little risk.”
Strategy: bonds or stocks?
To its turn, Pablo LazzatiCEO of Insider FinanceI think that “to be covered in dollarsmany market players use ActionsThe S&P Merval companies that are most closely related to the rise of the dollar are those that sell dollarized products, such as Ternium and Aluar”.
“The problem we have with this strategy is that, in recessionary months that affect the profitability of companies, These actions do not protect you 100% against devaluationbecause there may be drops in their price due to the company’s valuation. We recommend that those seeking to be covered in dollars do so through dollar linked instruments or future dollar”broad Lazzati.
Source: Ambito
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