Two months before the halving, Bitcoin shows no signs of a bull run: what do analysts say?

It is worth mentioning that, as is often the case, market instability was not limited to Bitcoin only. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH), Solarium (SUN), Cardano (ADA) and Dogecoin (DOGE), also faced substantial declines, ranging from 8% to almost 18%.

And the dizzying sell-off in the crypto market resulted in an avalanche of liquidations, with data from Coinalyze indicating more than US$580 million in sales at the close of last Friday. Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for the bulk of these losses, with combined trades exceeding $380 million. The largest single liquidation was an Ethereum trade worth $18.4 million on Binance.

The halving and questions about the future of cryptocurrencies

Just over two months after Bitcoin completed its fourth “halving”, There are many questions in the crypto communitybecause these last 70 days do not seem to have been as promising as the start of the year was.

Expectations of a significant price boost due to the approval of ETFs and the anticipated supply crisis resulting from the “halving” did not materialize as expected.

This created a feeling of disappointment and concern among investors, who are wondering whether something went wrong with the initial projections and what additional factors might be influencing the recent market volatility.

Two months after the fourth Bitcoin halving

Without a doubt, two months after the fourth Bitcoin halving, “it is still early to say that the long-awaited bull run is already among us,” he analyzes. Ramiro Garciaanalyst of Bitgetin dialogue with Ambit.

It turns out that we can statistically verify that in the three previous Bitcoin halvings, the price development ranged between a maximum and a minimum for an average of 150 days afterwards, and then began a bull run that took the price to a new all-time high.

Strictly speaking, “the range of this ‘halving’ is between US$74,000 and US$52,000, a range of 40% variation in the price,” says García, who is optimistic about the development and evolution of the price of the largest cryptocurrency in the world.

That “view” matches that of Vivien LinChief Product Officer at BingXwho argues that although the 2024 cycle is acting a little differently than others the crypto industry has experienced before. “The diagnosis leads us to observe considerable evidence suggesting that Bitcoin’s most pronounced gains are yet to come“, says.

And the expert analyzes that Bitcoin reached a new historical maximum before, and not after, the “halving”, “which is a unique event in itself”. What he is referring to is that there is usually always a lot of anticipation before this Bitcoin event and on April 19, 2024, the block reward for Bitcoin miners was cut in half, which ended up being quite anticlimactic.

“The reward dropped from 6.25 BTC per mined block to 3.125 BTC. This halving was considered, slightly differently as many new players entered the space, as an increase in institutional dollars“, Lin says.

“Both the increases and corrections in the price of Bitcoin They are distinctive features of cryptocurrencies, from their beginnings to the present day.. It is part of the dynamics. This volatility, which causes concern during periods when there are falls, usually works as an attraction for some traders looking for high profits in a short time,” he says. Alejandro Estrincountry manager of OKX Argentina.

Volatility is not a flaw, it is a feature of Bitcoin

For García, the main factors that determine the volatility that has increased substantially in the last month in the entire crypto market, “It is the increasingly scarce circulation of BTC by holders, generating more abrupt price movements when news such as those from Mt. Gox appear.the exchange that began returning Bitcoins to its holders, initiating a great bearish pressure, or the absorption of long positions that in just one night of blood reached US$580 million.

Lin, meanwhile, says there is “no specific reason for the market volatility” as many factors have caused it. JP Morgan predicted there would be a crash after the halving due to overbought conditions as miners do not make enough money to cover the cost of mining. There are also other factors such as the previously mentioned Mt. Gox, the collapsed exchange that began giving its users almost $9 billion in payments..

He also suggests that other concerns are emerging over sales by retail holders and governments selling some assets on a larger scale.

What does technical analysis say: “bull run” or “bear market”?

Lin argues that, in general, Cryptocurrencies continue to gain users around the world as people enter the ecosystem of various products such as stablecoins and altcoins and regulations become clearer.

“Bitcoin is the oldest and gold standard for cryptocurrencies, so when the ecosystem grows, it always benefits,” says the analyst. In the short term, it’s easy to assume that Bitcoin is suffering“but in one year the asset is up more than 90%.” In the long term, many retail and institutional players are hopeful that the parent cryptocurrency will bottom out this winter, followed by a breakout in spring, although it will be impossible to be sure, Lin concludes.

For his part, García agrees and comments that the movement in Bitcoin’s range It is in full development and there are still months to go before we can get out of the channel.a vision fairly aligned among many market analysts.

Thus, and despite some turbulent days for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general, Analysts maintain a long-term view, noting that volatility is an inherent feature of Bitcoin and that the market could still see a significant rally in the future. In the meantime, patience and monitoring of Long-term trends will be crucial to navigate this period of uncertainty.