Investments after the May Agreement: options to build the best portfolio in the second half of the year

He second semester presents a New outlook for investorswith some announcements that, although they do not seem to significantly change the local economic and financial scenario in the short term, do suggest some changes for the future. In this context, analysts propose investment options.

Possibly the most notable changes and announcements are the promulgation of the law Bases and the fiscal package, the entry of Federico Sturzenegger as “the great deregulator” to the Government, the transfer of liabilities from the Central Bank to the Treasury which was announced and, although with more limited scope, the signing of the May PactAll this, in a context of dollar shortage and exchange rate volatility.

LECAP, an interesting option

Given this scenario, the Financial analyst Elena Alonso he says Ambit who sees an interesting opportunity in “the rates of the LECAP for longer terms, which recently reached 70% (annual effective rate, EAR) and are performing much better than the fixed term.” He points out that it is a safe and much more liquid tool than the fixed term traditional and therefore an option worth taking advantage of.

“Investments in the new context, as I always say, They depend on the investment horizon and the risk profile of the investor.“, points out, in a similar sense, the financial expert Marcelo Bastante, For the more conservative, investing in LECAPs is a good option. He also mentions that, for those who are not familiar with these instruments, it may be better to invest in fixed-income funds. “There are even specialized funds that invest in LECAPs,” he says.

Sovereign bonds for the long term

Meanwhile, for longer horizons, Bastante indicates that sovereign bonds continue to be a good option, since they are still at low values, but always under the concept that “it is not for the very short term, since it is already known that sovereign bonds are low and have potential for rise,” without a specific date for them to take a leap.

Juan Ignacio Alra, Portfolio Manager at Southern Trustpartly agrees with this view, pointing out that “the approval of the Bases law, although it was enacted with a wording very different from that intended by the ruling party, served to give the Government a bit of fresh air and, in that context, interesting investments could be Bopreales or global bonds” and clarifies that the latter are “safer”, since they are issued under foreign law.

Dollarization, a refuge

In a similar sense, it points out Andrés Reschini, analyst at F2 Financial Solutionswhen he considers that, given the risk of local assets, “for more conservative profiles, hedging options such as the dollar, lower volatility CEDEARs and some negotiable obligations (ONs) are interesting.” He also assures that before making a decision of this type it is advisable to consult a trusted advisor.

Alonso adds that “sovereign bonds (AL30, AL35 and GD30), negotiable bonds, the most conservative, and CEDEARs (thinking of technology as the most interesting) are interesting alternatives for having a diversified portfolio.” In his view, in the medium-long or long term, investments should always be thought of in dollars.

Stocks, a roller coaster for long-termism

Another possibility that Alra is considering is to “get on the stock roller coaster,” but he warns that the Government has a significant difficulty in the dynamics of the real economy, which is in full recession, and points out that, although the financial market can sometimes take a while to see this as a problem, “sooner or later it does” and this will have repercussions on the dynamics of company stocks.

In this regard, he mentions that “it is important to always understand the risk that investments entail, especially when they are in Argentina, a complex and volatile country for investors.

Bastante also points out that, “for the more risk-taking, there may be opportunities in stocks after the corrections that occurred in May and June,” especially in those linked to energy and infrastructure, which may benefit from the new regulatory framework of the Regime of Incentives for Large Investors (RIGI). However, this option is only valid for more risky and non-short-term investors.