Another red day for the markets: dollar bonds fall up to 4% and country risk exceeds 1,600 points

He new economic regime announced by the Ministry of Economy remains unconvincing and sows more doubts in a market that recalibrates its perspectives. For the second day, lSovereign bonds in dollars fall sharply and country risk exceeds 1,600 points. Meanwhile, stocks are also falling, with the S&P Merval losing almost 2%.

In this context, the dollar bonds lose up to 4% and the Country risk reaches four-month high, already at 1,618 basis points. Investors doubt the Government’s ability to continue accumulating dollars and pay the rest of the commitments it must assume. Today the reserves will fall by another US$650 million from a new payment to the IMF.

Bad signals for the market

In the last few hours, the international credit risk rating agency Moody´s He warned that the migration of remunerated liabilities from the Central Bank to the National Treasury promoted by the national government will lead to greater exposure of banks to public debt and greater liquidity risk. The company’s consideration did not help the climate regarding Argentine assets.

“Clearly, the Government’s announcement over the weekend on monetary matters was very hasty when it should be the central bank (BCRA) that should be the main actor. The most important thing is to reduce the (exchange rate) gap that affects the shelves. (with price increases), which threatens the political capital of (libertarian president Javier) Milei,” said an economic analyst at a foreign private bank.

“What is worrying, and the markets are exposing them, is thatThe brake on the accumulation of reserves by the central bank, which puts nervous bondholders and that is why they fell, at the same time that the country risk naturally rises. Pesos are withdrawn from the market and the ‘clamp’ is not lifted, this leads to a shrinkage of the economy and that is why stocks are damaged,” he added.

Dollar bonds

It should be remembered that during the first session after the economic announcements, the Central Bank ended the day with purchases totaling US$36 million, resulting in a fall in reserves of US$102 million, thus reaching a total balance of US$28,172 million. Despite the purchases and the significant drop in financial dollars (CCL -8.64%), The BCRA would not have made dollar sales through the CCL, according to Inviu. Although they have not confirmed the modality with which they will carry out the sale, We are likely to see intervention by the BCRA in the market todaywhich could cause a further reduction in the value of the dollar.

Thus, debt securities are extending the red with the Global 2046 and the Bonar 2041, which fell 3.9%, leading the losses of the day. They are followed by the Bonar 2038, with -3.2% and the Bonar 2029 with -2.7%.

S&P Merval and ADRs

For its part, the S&P Merval fell by almost 2% after plummeting by almost 10% on Monday. The most affected on Tuesday were Edenor (-6.3%), Transener (-5.5%), Sociedad Comercial del Plata (-4.7%) and BYMA (-4.5%).

Meanwhile, ADRs reverse the negative trend with which they started the session and operate with a majority of increases on Wall Street, led by Supervielle Group (+2.8%), Banco Macro (+2.6%), and Galicia (+1.8%).