The Government seeks to renegotiate with the multilateral organization some 45,000 million dollars that are impossible to cover under the current scheme, in the face of an economy once again haunted by fears caused by the abrupt third wave of COVID-19.
Also later, the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the United States Federal Reserve will be known, which could give clues about its plans to increase interest rates and reduce stimuli.
At the local level, Guzmán meets this Wednesday with the governors to make known the points agreed between the technical teams of the Government and the IMF, while seeking the endorsement of the great powers of the world to try to seal an agreement. An official source said that the official will speak on three key issues of the talks: fiscal result, monetary issue and reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA).
It is worth remembering that in the first quarter of this year the debt with the institution amounted to US $ 4,000 million, when the net reserves of the BCRA barely exceeded US $ 2,000 million.
In this regard, the opposition said that it will not attend the meeting due to its political overtones, a position criticized by a ruling party that seeks to show unity on all fronts before the multilateral credit organization.
“The definitions of the different policies (fiscal, monetary and exchange rate) and the will or not of the Government to implement what is necessary within the framework of an agreement are two points to be evaluated by investors. However, the absence of opposition figures it does not allow us to be optimistic about the meeting this Wednesday, “they said from Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).
The market awaits news both on these negotiations and on the delayed “multi-year” economic plan, to face macroeconomic imbalances. All this occurs with Covid-19 scoring a new historical record of 81,210 cases.
Bonds and Country Risk
Yesterday, foreign currency bonds showed falls of up to 2.1%, in line with a negative climate for emerging markets from a rise in the rates of longer-term US bonds. Therefore, the Country Risk, measured by the JP Morgan bank, climbed 30 units to 1,731 basis points.
The titles had also started the year on the wrong foot. From PPI they highlighted the preference of investors for the bonds to 2038 and 2041, which operate under the old contract of 2005 (more flexible in legal terms).
“This is not surprising in a context in which the country risk exceeds 1,700 points and the cumulative probability of default over four years is around 78/79%,” the brokerage company explained in a report.
On the other hand, the bonds in pesos that adjust for inflation extended their upward trend this Tuesday, with increases in their prices of up to 2.3%, with particular interest in the securities of the middle or long part of the curve.
Private estimates resulted in inflation close to 4% last December, which is why the market warns that the slowdown in November was an isolated data, and that price increases will remain at high levels for a considerable time.
Source From: Ambito
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