JD Vance, the 39-year-old Ohio senator chosen as Trump’s presidential running mate, would be the first millennial to be nominated for a major officewhich is perceived as a strategic move to revitalize the Republican formula, betting on a new energy. In addition to his political career, Vance is known to be an enthusiastic advocate of cryptocurrencies, claiming to have significant investments in Bitcoin.
And Trump reached a record 70% in Polymarket bets after the assassination attempt last Saturday, in fact, The markets have reacted after that event as if he had already won the election. This, added to his statements on Taiwan paying for its defensewhich impacted Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) shares and a possible new front in the trade war with China in the field of Artificial Intelligence, It should be, at the very least, a signal to reconfigure portfolios.
Wall Street: What the market is analyzing
It should be noted that until this Friday, a total of $287.7 million in Polymarket’s presidential election smart contract. This sets a record for crypto-based prediction markets.
This week, Trump sent a message to Jerome PowellChairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), do not lower the interest rate before the November elections. This is because, if a cut is made, it would favor the Democratic candidate. In that context, Another front opens for investors and the question arises as to when the first casualty will arrive.
Ignacio SniechowskiHead of Equity of IEB Grouphe explains in conversation with Ambit He believes that the Fed will continue “more or less the same plan that it has been implementing.” However, he believes that the cycle of rate hikes has already ended and The sick leave period is likely to begin soon“It is quite possible that we will see a decrease this year if inflation data supports this decision. In the near future, a downward trend in rates is expected.”
A protectionist agenda
Sniechowski He points out that despite being seen as a liberal leader, Donald Trump has always shown a “somewhat protectionist agenda in relation to the US economy.” For the strategist, this suggests that, in its historical rivalry with China, it is likely to focus its attention on sectors such as semiconductors, information technology, military technology and artificial intelligence (AI), so “These industries could benefit significantly“.
For the analyst, with a cycle of falling rates and the resulting cheapening of credit, A more favorable scenario is created for the small and mid-cap companies (Small Caps)). “This makes the Russell 2000 (or its ETF, the IWM) particularly interesting.“, he shares. Something that the market has already witnessed in recent weeks, with a notable recovery of this index compared to other market indices.
Emilse Cordobadirector of Stock Market Bellbelieves that it is a good time to have more defensive strategies and, “Taking into account the rise in assets linked to high technology and artificial intelligence“, he believes that the current time is “a good time to carry out partial sales” of these papers. “In this area, the main factor to take into account It is the possible cooling of Trump’s relationship with China, and in addition the lack of support for Taiwan“, the analyst says.
Investors, is it time to add cryptocurrencies to your portfolio?
And as Córdoba explains, Trump’s statements, as well as his decisions, such as choosing Vance as his vice president, the continuity of Jerome Powell at the head of the Fed until the expiration of his mandate, so that he could then propose the CEO of the JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, could favor a change in the strategies that would be attracted to “the more financial areas like Bitcoin and venture capital“.
Iñaki Apezteguia, co-founder of Crossing Capitalanalyzes that during the presidential campaign, Trump has shown strong support for Bitcoinexpressing this at various rallies and meetings with leaders of the crypto mining industry.”
Apezteguia indicates that Trump seeks to make the US lead the crypto geopolitical scene“outpacing initiatives from Asia, especially China.” Therefore, it advocates supporting the mining industry, building crypto infrastructure and retaining American companies in the country to strengthen the crypto ecosystem.
He also points out that Trump strongly opposes the launch of the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), highlighting its implications for privacy and government control. And in a big move, the Republican Party has included Cryptocurrencies as part of their political platformindicating continued support for related policies. Therefore, The future of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies looks promising under the Trump presidency.
Polymarket Data.jpeg
For the crypto expert, the combination of a favorable stance towards deregulation, the acceptance of spot ETFs and an open attitude towards innovation could create an extremely positive environment for that ecosystem. He argues that larger projects such as Bitcoin and Ethereumalong with other promising projects such as Solana, Avalanche and Chainlinkare well positioned to benefit from these changes.
“This, in turn, could set the stage for widespread growth and potentially trigger the next bull market in the crypto space,” he concludes.
Regarding PolyMarket and its predictions, whether accurate or not, Apezteguia believes that prediction market platforms “are nothing more than a hunch.” However, defenders argue that these spaces encourage users to invest money in their predictions, which motivates them to investigate thoroughly and express their opinions objectively..
This could make forecasters in these markets more reliable than traditional pollsters or industry experts, since their financial interest is directly linked to the accuracy of their predictions.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
