Gurus predict what the US economy will look like if Kamala Harris wins the election

In that context, in the United States, investors should expect a possible Harris administration defend the economic policies that Biden implemented during his termincluding Inflation Reduction Act subsidies for electric cars and green energy projects, increased IRS funding to pursue wealthy tax evaders, taxes on stock buybacks, and a 15% corporate minimum tax for large corporations.is corporations.

“A Harris presidency would be, for all practical purposes, a continuation of the Biden administration.,” Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, was quoted as saying by the US press. “From a Democratic perspective, I think that’s a feature, not a flaw,” he added, noting that concerns about a Biden-led ticket were “not because of his policies, but because of his health and ability.”

Even if Harris wins over Donald Trump in November, analysts say Republicans are likely to take back the Senate, limiting Harris’ ability to sign partisan legislation.

The challenges facing Kamala Harris

Harris would immediately face the need to negotiate an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, which temporarily reduced income tax rates and increased the child tax credit. Biden has promised to extend those cuts for families making less than $400,000 a year, and analysts believe Harris will take the same position.

A scenario in which a Democrat is in the White House while Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress would be one in which investors should expect a bit more fiscal restraint than if Trump won or if there was a Democratic sweep, according to Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners.

“There is no serious conversation about fiscal restraint or deficit reduction on Capitol Hill and we don’t see any emerging unless Biden wins reelection and Republicans return to their conservative fiscal mantra of 2011,” he wrote in a recent note to clients.

Such a scenario could lead to a high-stakes game over deficits and the debt ceiling that characterized negotiations between the White House and Congress during the Obama administrationhe added. Negotiations over extending the Bush tax cuts took several years, saw serious threats that Congress would not raise the debt ceiling, a record government shutdown and led to the credit rating agency S&P downgrading U.S. debt.

It’s important to note that Democrats are not guaranteed to name Harris as their nominee at next month’s convention.and the decision will be in the hands of the more than 4,000 delegates responsible for formally nominating a candidate. “At the moment when [Joe Biden] “If Harris is not a candidate, they are officially uncommitted,” Elaine Kamarck, a convention expert and member of the Democratic National Committee’s rules panel, told Politico. Nevertheless, analysts see Harris as the overwhelming favorite to clinch the nomination.

“Due to time and logistical constraints, it will be difficult for any Democrat [que no sea Harris] “organize a campaign and raise funds,” Brian Gardner, chief Washington strategist at Stifel, said in an email. “Ms. Harris could inherit Biden’s campaign infrastructure, including campaign funds,” he added. “In addition, we expect the Congressional Black Caucus to endorse Vice President Harris… other Democrats will have a hard time matching these advantages.”

Harris’s resume

Harris does not have a long track record in economic policy, having spent most of her public life as a prosecutor, but her brief time as a senator and presidential candidate in 2020 could offer some clues about her views.

During his time as California attorney general, he helped secure a $25 billion settlement for homeowners wrongfully foreclosed on in the wake of the financial crisis, after withdrawing from national talks that benefited less wealthy residents of other states. She also pushed for “homeowners’ rights” legislation in California, two moves that cemented her status as a consumer advocate in the run-up to her 2020 candidacy.

Harris also focused on the plight of low-income and middle-class renters, proposing during her presidential campaign a tax credit for families who spend more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities, in the form of a monthly check.

Another important factor in Harris’s biography is her ties to big tech companies. As a San Francisco-based politician, she has cultivated close connections with big tech companies like Meta and Alphabet.a fact that was seen as a drawback in the 2020 Democratic primaries but could be good news for tech investors if she wins the presidency.

Harris also struggled to find a consistent message on health policy during that campaign. As a freshman senator, she embraced Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” platform, but backed away from that position as she sought the nomination, arguing instead for allowing Americans to keep their private health insurance but also enroll in a public insurance alternative if they wanted.