Both the variation of the blue dollar, as well as inflation and the rate paid by fixed-term deposits began to converge in the seventh month of the year. What is expected in August.
Blue dollar, rate or inflation: which won the race in July and what is expected in August
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Both the variation Dolar blueas the inflation (estimated) and the rate that pay the Traditional 30-day fixed terms began to converge in July. Thus, while some CPI projections for this month are located between 3.5% and 4.6%he parallel ticket has so far recorded progress of 3.7%. For its part, the interest paid by the fixed term of the National Bank was from 2.7% monthly.
As regards the inflationthe price increase for the current month will be around 4% -according to private projections-a figure lower than the 4.6% in June, published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). The estimate that calculates the lowest level locates it at 3.5% monthlywhile the highest projection is from 4.8%.
As for the Dolar blueto stay in the $1,415would end the month with an increase of 3.7% which implies a nominal increase of $50. The illegal bill rose during the first two weeks of the month, but then began to gradually decline. During this month, The BCRA began to intervene in the stock market in order to control the exchange gap between financial dollars and the wholesale dollarwhich also conditioned the blue.
As for the rate paid by the Fixed deadlinestaking as reference that of National Bankwhich is located in 33% TNAIt results in a monthly yield of 2.7%Among the main entities, the one that pays the least is in the range of 30% and the highest, does so at 36%.
According to the latest Treasury tender, in turn, the cut-off rate for the Lecaps (the market’s star instrument in pesos) was located in 4.2% TEM, (S29N4 and S31M5).
Blue dollar, rate or inflation: what can we expect in August?
For the economist, Elena Alonsothe interest rate may rise because it would be “an interesting strategy of the Central Bank to continue to absorb pesos and continue with the policy of keeping the dollar almost stable. Today the financial exchange rates broke the barrier of $1,300.”
Refering to inflationrecalled that “is on the decline” and is projected to break through 4%. “The blue dollar gap is also expected to begin to narrow and converge with the financial markets. For me, the investment that will win in August is the interest rate, not the dollar or the CER.“, the expert concluded.
“I think that rate and inflation will go hand in hand in the sense that if the second slows down more, the first would have to go down.maintaining positive in real terms. Although it will be a fine balance to avoid a migration to dollar positions of those pesos that remain at the rate,” he told Ambitthe Economist Federico Glustein.
For his part, for the expert, “the blue has that issue of excess pesos that is maintained due to a lack of confidence in dollars, but because has no other economically positive alternative in terms of profitability due to uncertainty“I see that the macro does not help to clarify the panorama and that it will remain tense in the coming weeks.”
Source: Ambito
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