Market experts analyze which signals are considered positive and which would imply a decrease in parallel exchange rates, and which others put the reduction of the gap at risk.
Analysts agree that the blue dollar, along with stock prices, will tend to decline during August.
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There are analysts who agree that the Dolar bluealong with the quotes stock exchangeswill tend to decline during Augustmotivated by the process of disinflationhe Whiteningand the Government’s attempts to reduce the gap. Although they also warn about certain “risks” that would put the informal dollar at a crossroads and that have to do with the fact that the loss of BCRA reserves: This situation is worrying the market, which could cause Raise the MEP and the CCL in the face of a dollarization of portfoliosand pour out those fears towards the blue.
It should be noted that this Tuesday The blue dollar fell for the fourth consecutive day to $1,355 for purchase and $1,385 for sale. In this way, it is consolidated below the symbolic value of $1,400which kept it with a gap of more than $100 with respect to financial dollars in recent days after the beginning of “phase 2” of the Government’s economic plan. For their part, both the MEP and the CCL are located at levels close to $1,270.
“For us, parallel dollars They will be calm during the month of August, with the gap remaining at the current level or even falling slightly,” he told Ambit, Ignacio MoralesFinancial Assets Analyst at Wise Capital. “The main factor is the intervention of the BCRA in the CCL to sterilize the pesos issued for the purchase of reserves. The Central Bank’s firepower is $2.5 trillion (around $1.5 billion, of which $250 million are estimated to have been used) and We believe that it will remain present in the market to prevent the gap from widening, keeping it at current levels.”he added.
In this regard, he stressed that this point is “very important” so that the gap does not increase and continue the process of disinflationwhich would allow in a few months that unification is as smooth as possible“Another point in favor is the flexibility of the official exchange market. In the first half of the year, imports paid through the CCL amounted to US$9 billion. The reduction in payment terms for imports carried out last week will lead to a portion of these importers deciding to switch from the parallel market to the official market to pay abroad, taking pressure off the CCL.”Morales said.
August and parallel dollars: the march towards convergence
“Despite continuing the pressures on reserves in this periodas already anticipated, this contraction of the gap would be explained by the entry of funds possibly for money laundering -hence the zero exchange between the CCL and the MEP- as well as the process of disinflation which is activating arbitrations in favor of the “Lecaps”he told Ambit the Economist Gustavo Ber and added: “That also happens with the Fiscal and monetary anchor working in the backgroundas well as the usual greater need for end-of-month pesos which may also be contributing to the dynamics“.
For this expert, the convergence towards August could continue a gap of around 30%equivalent to Financial dollars close to $1,200if they continue the signs that point to new flexibilities to anticipate investors a way out of the trap. It should be noted that the illegal ticket records, so far this month, an advance of only 1.5%. For its partthe financial ones, will close July with losses of 5.8% and, although there is a gap between blue and financial, this tends to narrow.
“The main threat we see to this scenario is the acceleration of BCRA dollar sales in the official marketincreasing the loss of BCRA reserves, generating “nervousness among investors and causing a dollarization of portfolios”Morales concluded, by stating what could be the “drive” that announces a change in trend in parallel quotes.
Source: Ambito
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