Blue dollar: the reasons why it dropped $80 in 5 days and what is expected in the coming weeks

In this context, the market’s eye is now on what may happen in the coming weeks, due to the strong volatility experienced by the parallel currencies. The main analysts of the City put the emphasis on the BCRA interventionwhich served as an anchor in the price, as well as in the political tensions that may influence the parallel market.

The movement of the BCRA in the financial led to the CCL and the MEP They will go down near $140 from its historic record at the close and that the gap gave in to the 56% to the 38%which had an impact on the parallel currency, thanks to the abundant supply, and also dragged it into negative territory.

Blue dollar: what analysts are projecting

For the economist Federico Glustein, “The blue dollar is going to enter a crossroads”In this regard, the specialist listed reasons that could lead to the parallel exchange rate falling, such as: “bicycle” between blue and the MEP, which currently has a profit of 6%, but days ago it reached 12%. To this factor is added the removal of Restrictions on access to the Stock Exchangewhich “expanded the offer in the financial segment, leaving some private operations and some players who prefer to remain in the informal segment more free.”

For his part, the economist from the Scalabrini Ortiz Study Center (CESO), Federico Zirulnikhe said in dialogue with Ambit that “If the Government continues to intervene in the parallel markets, it is likely that the blue dollar will remain stable“.

In this regard, the financial analyst of F2 Financial Solutions, Andres Reschiniadded that the Government of Javier Milei “has a more organized monetary scheme” and that generates, in turn, that “improve” the inflation projections. “The biggest doubt perhaps lies in the BCRA’s ability to accumulate reservesbut as long as we manage to continue slowing down the inflationwith fiscal accounts in order and renewed confidence regarding the accumulation of reserves, I don’t see a blue dollar climbing. Also. now BCRA has the tool of the rate without generating emission and this helps“, he analyzed.

“Projecting in Argentina a month ahead is a difficult exercise,” emphasized the exchange operator in PR, Gustavo Quintanaand added that everything indicates that “quotes entered a downward path” and gradually lose part of the profit from the previous month.

“The lack of pesos is beginning to be felt and will surely become more pronounced in August”Quintana said. The variable of lack of pesos is one of those already raised by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputowhen he mentioned that Argentines would begin to “sell dollars to pay taxes” and the peso would strengthen as a currency.

Along those lines, Quintana added that for those reasons does not observe a “significant bullish rebound of the blue dollar”barring some unforeseen event.”

Another variable that the economist put into play Federico Glustein It was the possibility that “Remove some restrictions on the official dollar”which could generate some kind of demand pressure in the official segment and that, in turn, slightly increase the blue“However, if this possibility does not occur, there would be no upward pressure mechanisms other than political and macroeconomic expectations,” he stressed.

Blue dollar: at what price could it converge in the coming weeks?

The consensus of the various analysts is that the The price of the blue dollar converges close to the MEP and CCL dollarwhich is currently hovering around $1,290, about $90 below the current value of the currency.

For Reschini the value will be close to the $1,300, about $70 below the current value, while Glustein calculates it under the $1,400, at a value similar to the current one and Zirulnik He placed it around the financiers.

Although, Zirulnik made the caveat that if the Government stops intervening, the blue could return to the levels of 15 days ago, around $1,500.