The Government has been having serious difficulties in obtaining dollars for the BCRA reserves, since it sold foreign currency in the last six rounds of the official exchange market and, in this context, it is making a new disbursement to the IMF.
This Thursday, The Government faces a new payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This is a disbursement of US$840 million, which will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the International reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) and it is a payment of interest and surcharges, the second to last of this 2024.
Yes ok This Thursday we will know what the real impact will bewe will have to wait until the afternoon, when the daily result of buying and selling dollars by the BCRA is reported to know what it was. It should be noted that the payment to the Fund It will be done with the disbursement that Argentina received from the IMF following the approval of the organization’s latest assessment of goals, which was US$800 million.
But the truth is that this comes at an inappropriate time for the BCRA given that has been selling reservations for six days in a row. Throughout July, A net sale of US$181 million was recordedthe highest since December 2023. Consequently, they are located at US$26,399 million, the lowest value since the end of January this year. Likewise, there is concern in the market about the Central’s net reserves, which are in negative territory, with one -US$6,000 million, according to some analysts in the city.
An impact on the BCRA reserves
The Government has been using the method of paying all due amounts at the end of the month, but this time it cannot do so because This is a payment of interest and not capital.. The next payment you must make will be on November 1st and it is a last payment of US$825 million, for which it will receive funds from the IMF if it approves the next quarterly reviewwhich will take place in September.
After that moment, Luis Caputo, Minister of Economy, seeks to advance in a new agreement with the IMF to obtain fresh dollars that will allow it to reach its goal as soon as possible. get out of the trap.
The issue of reservations is a key element in this process, given that, according to a report by the consulting firm Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI)“forward, Your performance should get worse since the seasonality of imports and exports will continue to play against the accumulation of dollars. And remember that it usually sells reserves in the third quarter and, having made access to the official market more flexible for more than 60% of imports, greater pressure was added between September and November, when there will be a flow of more than 100% of imports accessing.
The big problem is that The Government is seeking to release the restrictions going forward and this is something that the market is insistently asking for.. He The success of this strategy depends, mainly, on having a successful whitewash and moratorium. and it is achieved an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) involving a disbursement of US$10 billion or more.
Source: Ambito
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