Bye bye dollar linked funds and CER: the new investment that is gaining ground in the city

In this context, the mutual funds (FCIs) with the highest subscription flow are the Money Market and The Lecaps with redemption period immediate (T+0), and, “on the other hand, there are redemptions in the CER and dollar linked, which continue to be the most punished ‘year to date’ in terms of flow,” he tells Ámbito, Matias RossiPortfolio Manager of Investing in the Stock Market – IEB Funds.

And the Lecaps became the market’s darling instrumentsince the Government offers incentives and prizes in the tenders, in such a way that they attract various actors, such as banks, FCIs and insurers.

Inflation expectations and investment reconfiguration

Rossi indicates that the strategy is based on how the market anticipates the dynamics that could become the protagonist in the second half of the year: “Inflation is being controlled at a very good pace, even better than expected by the Government.“.

On the opposite side, the idea will continue that in the short term “The conditions are not in place to get out of the currency controls and unify the exchange rate“, since the BCRA continues selling reserves and there is no news, at least for now, of any foreign hand injecting dollars into Argentina.

These are the factors that negatively impact CER assetsexplains Rossi, since the high-frequency data show results for July of a monthly inflation “closer to 3% than 4%“. The same thing happens with the dollar linkedwhich in addition to the fact that today the conditions for lifting the cepo are not met, The MEP dollar broke the $1,300 floor and it is likely to continue to fall, “this compresses the gap between the official and the free exchange rate, and thus firmly diminishes expectations of a short-term devaluation of the “A” 3500,” concludes Rossi.

The amounts of inflows and outflows of the FCIs

With July now behind us, and unlike June, analysts note that there is a clear appetite and preference for liquidity. In detail, “the funds of immediate liquidity They have already raised more than $1.9 billion and the Fixed Income T+0, with greater holding of Lecaps and redemptions during the day, are close to $110,000 million,” he shares with this medium. Valentina HerediaFCI analyst at Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).

Short-term fixed-income securities follow with around $80 billion and, although the dollar linked, already exceeds $170,000 million in positive flows, “we must not forget that these same They concentrated in the first days of July,” Heredia says. For its part, the coverage against inflation or CER funds, “They see reds above $200,000 million“, he says.

In terms of performance, “July was a difficult month for fixed income” explains Heredia, especially for hedging. In numbers, T+0 Fixed Income and short-term fixed income advanced by around 4% on average; whiledollar linked coverage posted gains of 1%, followed by CERs with 0.6% and discretionary ones with 0.5%

The conservative strategy and “cash management”

And it is that Investors are pursuing an investment strategy very conservativeIt turns out that in a scenario where expectations of growth dropped significantly, exchange rate correction and where expected inflation fell by about 25 points in recent months, “the bet is focusing on the fixed rate segment,” he says. Rodrigo Benitez, Chief Economist of MEGAQMin statements to this medium.

It happens that the Lecaps issued by the National Treasury, “which already have an amount in circulation of almost $30 billion pesos and offer a range of liquid and tiered instruments“They boast yields that start at just above 3% and reach above 4.5% in the longer periods,” explains Benítez.

In the fund industry this translates into investors prioritizing investment options “cash management” and, within that category, a growth in Lecaps funds that operate with same-day redemption, in the case of MEGAQM the Balanced Quinquela. “They are products specially designed to take advantage of this context, since they invest in the shortest Lecaps to reduce volatility. and they offer the rescue at the close of the market,” says Benítez.

The economist explains that, in this way, Low demand for CER hedging instruments continuesas well as “the slowdown in demand for exchange rate coverage that had increased when the gap between the official dollar and the financial dollar widened.”

T+1 Funds: the year’s big winners

According to MEGAQM, in terms of performance, the T+1 category is, so far, the one with the highest reward, followed by the CER, “but in the last two months it has lost ground.” product of a marked correction in inflationary expectations“A move that reflects a reassessment of the path of price dynamics anticipated by the market, which expects inflation to be below 3% per month starting in August.

Thus, in recent weeks, the biggest prize has been won by the fixed-income segment, “where the shorter Lecaps funds and the T+1 funds stand out, which are positioned in the middle range and the longer the curve of these instruments,” analyzes Benítez.

The broker, specialized in FCIs and looking ahead to the coming months, projects a short positioning on the fixed rate curve, “waiting to find a suitable entry point to return to assets with adjustment clauses“For now, coverage is maintained in those cases where investors have commitments in these adjustment clauses.

Thus, the combination of lower inflation, an expectation of more moderate devaluation and the search for greater security by market players is reconfiguring the investment board. Fixed-income instruments, especially Lecaps, are positioned as the favorites, displacing inflation-adjusted bonds and reducing demand for currency hedging.