The Financial dollars rise for the third consecutive day This Friday, August 2, they consolidated above $1,300 and brought the gap with the official rate above 40%. The quotes have fallen by up to 4.8% in July amid the intervention of the Central Bank (BCRA) in the stock market to reduce the gap.
The dollar MEP amounts to $19.81 (1.5%) $1,319.95, Meanwhile he CCL advances $18.09 (1.4%) to $1,320.33. In both cases the spread with the wholesaler regulated by the BCRA It stands at 41.1%, the highest level of the week.
Regarding last Friday Stock exchange rates are recording a disparate behaviorsince the MEP recorded a decrease of $3.20 (-0.2%) and the CCL a slight increase of $2.48 (0.2%).
Carry trade and regional context, the causes of the rebound of financial markets
After four consecutive losses, financial markets began to rebound in the last hours of Wednesday. Carry trade operations and the devaluation of regional currencies appear to be the main factors explaining this reversal, according to specialists.
“Recent declines may have sparked increased demandbeyond the fact that in the current context the gap could be narrowed – with the fiscal and monetary tightening in the background – due to the greater inflow of funds from money laundering and tax obligations, credits from organizations and a higher real rate that was awakening greater interest in placements in pesos, especially through the Lecaps,” the economist told this media. Gustavo Ber.
For its part, Andres Reschinia master’s degree holder in finance, warned that the bullish behavior probably has to do with the depreciation of the region’s currencies.
Along the same lines, the economist Amilcar Collante pointed out the external context as the main factor“You have emerging currencies, particularly the real, depreciating, and the dollar a little stronger on a global scale. Without a doubt, that impacts you in the region and in Argentina, despite the exchange controls,” he said.
“The Government may set a ceiling if it intervenes again with a little more firepower, but in reality what happened today is something exogenous.“We need to look at the dynamics going forward to see if the market also perceives that the accumulation of reserves has slowed down,” he added.
Reserves under pressure
In July the Government began a new stage of monetary policy, which includes the Use of BCRA reserves to intervene in the CCL pricewith the dual objective of closing the gap and absorbing the $2.4 million that were issued through the purchase of foreign currency in the official market since April.
Although market sources have confirmed that the level of intervention has been considerably reduced in recent days, there is concern that the scarce dollars in the Central Bank are at risk.
After hitting a low since January, and marking a negative of more than US$7 billion in net terms, reserves rebounded this Thursday.
Source: Ambito
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