The market is concerned this week about reserves and anticipates a possible rate hike in the Treasury auction. How will country risk and equity continue?
One week from now crash in the markets which moderately affected Argentina, dollar bonds started on the rise this Monday, August 12. On Friday, bonds remained somewhat marginalized from what was happening in equity, closing the session almost neutral while emerging, Latin American and distressed bonds rose in general.
In this context, the Dollar bonds start the week with gains up to 1% led by Global 2035 and Global 2041.
Market keys for this week
While waiting for concrete signs that will encourage the liberalization of the exchange market and a drop in the inflation rate, analysts are concerned about the level of negative reserves of the central bank (BCRA), in the midst of a workers’ strike that limits the income of foreign currency from exports.
“The market continues to expect a decline in financial dollars and an end to the currency controls by the end of 2024 or early 2025,” said Andrés Vernengo of Capital Markets Argentina.
“The government has a card up its sleeve: if demand for financial dollars heats up again, there are many who expect a rate increase in the next Treasury auctions,” he said.
“What the market is seeing is that a climate of global uncertainty would affect the country’s ability to refinance its 2025 liabilities in the international credit market,” Wise Capital said in a report.
“With the continuity of the Blend dollar (special dollar for exports), the new one in two installments of payment for imports and the intervention that the BCRA can carry out to ‘sterilize pesos’ and without incorporating the money laundering, the net international reserves would continue to deteriorate in the remainder of the year to reach levels similar to those of a year ago, if the scenario does not change,” said the consulting firm EcoGo.
News in development-.-
Source: Ambito
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