The final blow was dealt by the monthly report for August from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is at an 18-year low.
He international price of soybeans, The highest reference point for the dollar is the Chicago market, and it is already on track to break the $350 mark, an 18-year low in real terms. The problem is that the declines have been repeated almost without interruption since May and there is no reason to think that it will recover the lost ground.
Thus, the price of oilseeds in Chicago fell 1.6% to US$351.26, while corn fell 0.5% to US$150 and wheat, on the other hand, rose 0.5% to US$197.
“We truly believe that this is one of the factors to closely monitor over the next year, as it may condition the monetary-exchange rate strategy of the Milei Administration or, at least, increase the costs associated with them,” explained the consulting firm Outlier.
The final blow came from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly report for August. There, the country’s production estimate was raised from 120.7 to 124.9 million tons, reaching a historic record. This super harvest that the United States is expecting only adds downward pressure to the international market, which today has an extremely abundant supply, depressing prices. In addition, the weather outlook for its producing areas is good, which further complicates the price scenario.
The problem is that overnight trading on the US stock market, which ended less than an hour ago, showed that the values of the oilseed contracts continue to sink.
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Soybeans: South America and the world
On the South American supply side, USDA kept production estimates for Brazil and Argentina unchangedIn the first case, a harvest of 169 million tons is expected and for our country, 51 million tons, which have already been harvested.
On the other hand, Import forecasts for China, the world’s largest buyer, were maintained at 109 million tonnes. Thus, the American dependency anticipated a global soybean production of 428.72 million tonscompared to 421.85 million in last month’s report.
As for final stocks, I estimate them at 134.30 million tons, compared to 127.76 million in July and the 128 million forecast by private sources.
Source: Ambito
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