Until recently, the financial institution had increased the chances of recession in the US. However, after encouraging data, the percentage had to be recalculated.
This week, Goldman Sachs revised downwards its estimate of a US recession, reducing the probability from 25% to 20%. The reasons are supported by the Economic data indicating greater strength in the economy than expected.
The bank had recently raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 25%, based on worrying signals in the market. However,Or, the most recent data reconfigured this panoramaGoldman Sachs economists cite employment figures and retail sales as key drivers of this reassessment.
Goldman Sachs: what it said
Specifically, initial jobless claims have declined in recent weeks, and July retail sales have exceeded expectations with 1% growth, reflecting robust consumption. In addition, non-manufacturing employment has shown signs of expansion for the first time since November 2023, according to the July ISM index.
Inflation in the United States USA
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“Recent indicators on economic activity, the reduction in layoffs and financial conditions are encouraging, suggesting that the weakness seen in the July employment report may not be the start of a recession but rather a one-off,” Goldman Sachs economists note.
Source: Ambito
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