Prediction markets reflect a competitive and volatile race between Trump and Harris, with no clear favorite as both candidates continue to swing in popularity.
Donald Trump, Republican candidate for the presidency of the United Statestook the lead again against Kamala Harrisaccording to data from the Blockchain-based market prediction platform, Polymarket, which gives the tycoon a 51% chance of victory, surpassing Harris, who currently sits at 47%.
In recent days, Kamala Harris attended the Democratic National Convention, but her position in the Polymarket odds took a hit. Initially, Harris enjoyed a substantial lead over Trump after announcing her candidacy. However, as she unfolded her economic plans, her chances began to dwindle.
Four days ago, the two candidates were tied in the prediction market, but Trump has since taken the lead by a few percentage points. The bet on Polymarket titled “Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election” has a valuation of $692 million. Meanwhile, on the prediction platform predictit.org, Harris leads with a 53% chance, while Trump follows closely with 49%.
What the prediction markets say
Despite the difference between Polymarket and predictit.org, Trump’s support has grown by 4% since August 19, while Harris’s has fallen by 3% since August 20. This trend is reflected in several betting markets, making Polymarket no exception. On betohio.com, both Trump and Harris are tied.each with a 53% probabilitySimilarly, covers.com reflects a close race, with each candidate at 52.4% probability.
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Prediction markets reflect a competitive and volatile race between Trump and Harris, with no clear front-runner as both candidates continue to swing in popularity. As the campaign progresses, these shifts suggest the race will remain closely contested, with the outcome likely dependent on key developments and strategic decisions in the final weeks. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has withdrawn from the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Kennedy withdrew from the race on August 22, according to a document filed with the Arizona Secretary of State. The withdrawal comes ahead of Kennedy’s next speech in Arizona on August 23.
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The withdrawal comes days after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump expressed willingness to have Kennedy play a role in his administration if the independent candidate drops out, Trump told CNN. The outcome of the US election could have significant implications for crypto regulations globally, as the US is often seen as a guiding jurisdiction for global regulations as the world’s largest economy.
Source: Ambito
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