In the run-up to the money laundering, the argendólares continue to grow and are already at their highest since 2020

When the last four days of the month still remain to be computed, the The encouraging development of private dollar deposits continues to attract attention and is undoubtedly a good sign, especially at times of doubt about the future course of economic policy and legislative skirmishes in general.

So far this month, the stock of the so-called argendólares records on the 26th, the last official data from the Central Bank (BCRA), a increase of 484 million dollars reaching a total of 19,071 million dollars. This is a level not seen since early 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic began, that is, the stock with which Alberto Fernández’s administration began.

But in reality, that level was not real because it had a certain seasonal component due to the tax factor that explains why they grow at the end of each year. It is worth remembering that The stock of argendólares was larger at that time, above 33 billion dollars, but after the pre-PASO polls and the results of the PASO, a diaspora of these savings in dollars was triggered. Thus, in those months, 15 billion dollars were lost, that is, 45.5% of the total. Today, the financial system has recovered the stock with which it was operating at the end of October 2019.

The libertarian era of argendólares

In the Milei era, The argendólares show an increase of 4.956 billion dollars and so far in 2024 of 3.269 billion dollars, which speaks of genuine growth. Although some analysts are talking about a sharp increase in these placements, it should be noted that in reality, until now, the jump occurred last July when the stock grew by 728 million dollars.

After the January clean-up, due to the tax issue and the first steps of the new government, in February and March they began to recover with increases of around 490 million dollars on average per month, which was maintained until May with the exception that in April they fell to about 360 million dollars. But in June they barely grew by 136 million dollars, 0.8% per month, indicating a certain exhaustion in the face of political and economic turbulence. However, July was a standout, even after the failed press conferences of the economic team, registering a strong increase of 4.1% monthly. In August, until the 26th, the stock grew by 484 million dollars, which is 2.6% monthly, well below the previous month.

Dollar deposits and the effect of money laundering

The truth is that if they continue to grow, that is what matters for several reasons that we will see. Some analysts consider that the growth in August is an indication that taxpayers are beginning to externalize dollars in cash, but they admit that it is too early to speculate on the extent of the money laundering, according to the consulting firm 1816.

That is why the market anticipates that, in the coming weeks, the system should see an acceleration of argendollars as the expiration of the first date of the whitening approaches to adhere with the lowest fine.

Investment managers acknowledge that enquiries have intensified in recent weeks, around 40% more than before, but so far they have not seen an avalanche of account openings or laundered flows. Although, in general, they are optimistic about the level of adhesion because they consider that there is a lot of capital accumulated in recent years eager to come to light, but not even coming close to what was the money laundering of 2016.

Therefore, The market is pricing in the fact that the first phase of the money laundering process, which expires at the end of September, would see the greatest income from the fiscal plan. The truth is that Approximately between 20 and 35 billion dollars are expected to be laundered, and part of that will go into special accounts. increasing the stock of argendólares, indirectly benefiting the BCRA as we will see. The latest experience shows that in 2016, due to money laundering, the stock of Argentine dollars more than doubled. This time it might not be as relevant but it will add up.

Argendólares: the grateful reserves

There are other aspects to consider in the performance of the argendollars. On the one hand, its positive evolution is considered a good sign in terms of the level of confidence of investors and savers in the official management of the moment, which is not a minor detail.

But on the other hand, and perhaps the most relevant, the stock of argendóllars has two relevant correlations: one is that The reserves of the argendólares (the portion of the deposits that the banks do not lend) are computed within the stock of the gross reserves of the BCRAtherefore, when they grow, the position of the reserves improves and vice versa; and the other is that these placements They provide foreign currency lending capacity to banks to meet the demand of exporting and related companies, which may not be able to access the international market. Therefore, as the Argentine dollars grow, banks have to More credit offer to offer in the local market. This is how, between March and July, the stock of private loans in dollars grew by almost $3 billion recovering levels of $6.4 billion in total similar to mid-July 2020.

It is worth noting that after the debacle of convertibility, these loans can only be channeled to borrowers who are exporters, that is, who have a flow of foreign currency in their businesses or are linked to the export sector, so that there is no currency mismatch between the credit and the borrower’s income. In addition, observing that The stock of Argentine dollars exceeds 19 billion dollars and only 6.4 billion dollars are lentthis indicates that there is still idle loanable capacity to channel into the local system.