Javier Milei could face for the first time a adverse ruling without further appeal. This is the cause GDP Coupon, where an experienced analyst advanced to Scope that “there is a 99% chance that the English Court will not accept the case.”
The fault is of 1.33 billion euros plus interest. Meanwhile, the dollars There is no surplus and net reserves remain in negative territory. A greater influx of importers is expected after the fall in the COUNTRY TAX, in July the shot was fired Tourist demand for foreign currency and the The field raises questions about prices, exchange rates and weather conditions.
Despite the stability shown by the parallel dollars since the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoannounced the intervention in that segment with Central Bank reserves and doubts about the ability to genuinely accumulate reserves are not dispelled.
In the coming days, a greater influx of importers is expected in the foreign exchange market due to the reduction of the PAIS Tax. This is in addition to seasonal, climatic and international factors. In any case, the underlying question is how sustainable the economic programme and its exchange rate scheme are.
An adverse ruling in October?
In October, Javier Milei and his economic team will have to pass a new test. Latam Advisors Regional Director Sebastian Maril, qwho studies Argentina’s disputes abroad like no one else, Ámbito anticipated that “there is a 99% probability that the English Court will not accept the GDP Coupon case.”
The lawsuit is for about 1.33 billion euros plus interest and Maril highlights that “There will be no additional legal proceedings”. For this reason, he compares the situation that Cristina Kirchner faced in 2014 with the case of the holdouts in the Supreme Court of the United States. From the point of view that the Government will have to make decisions.
If the setback is confirmed in British courts, the first consequence will be that the beneficiaries of the ruling will receive some 313 million euros that Argentina had to put up as collateral in March of this year. Maril believes that the creditors are willing to negotiate the form of payment of the rest of the ruling, although he warns that “The longer it takes, the less chance there is of negotiating.”
According to the specialist, if the issue is not resolved quickly, it would not be strange if the beneficiaries of the ruling would at least try to “make a little noise” with the gold that Caputo is sending abroad and threaten an embargo. Argentina has lawsuits pending in international courts for approximately US$30 billion.
The tourists’ party
Litigation is not the only problem for the Caputo-Milei plan and reservations. This Friday, the Central Bank published the foreign exchange balance for July, which revealed an alarming figure: US$566 million were lost in that month due to the tourism deficit.
The services account is one of those that most quickly reflects the impact of exchange rate policy. Data: in November 2023, the peak of the exchange rate lag after the electoral shock, US$623 million were lost. After the devaluation in December, the red turned green and in January there was a surplus of US$84 million.
As the months went by, the exchange rate appreciation deepened and the deficit increased, even though the financial dollars and the blue dollar are below the quotation of credit card payments, In the last two months, reserves bled almost US$1 billion for this reason.
Something smells fishy in Denmark. Images of hundreds of cars queuing up endlessly at border crossings, no longer to buy household appliances, but to fill their shopping carts at a supermarket in a neighbouring country, are setting off alarm bells.
The question of the field
Meanwhile, in Argentina’s most dynamic sector in terms of generating foreign currency, there are several questions. The latest report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) brought good news for spring 2024 and bad news for summer 2025According to the entity, the update of the international organizations shows a significant shift in time of the lowest values of cooling in the Pacific.
Specifically, the BCR anticipates that “this would change the impact of La Niña on the 2024/25 gross”, on this point “A better scenario for early corn and more risk for early soybeans in Argentina” is proposed. Just when the price of the oilseed is well below the level of recent years. Even with an upturn, it closed on Friday at US$360 per tonne.
Fewer dollars for the Central Bank? It remains to be seen for certain. But to this panorama we should add the dollar blend scheme, which is here to stay and allocates 20% of exports to maintaining exchange rate peace. Cheers to the trade surplus that is going away, in the subsidy to financial dollars and the little party for tourists.
Source: Ambito
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