The Government is working to keep the dollar calm. First with the BCRA, and now with the FGS of ANSES.
We have been talking for a long time now about the Almost non-existent international reserves in the BCRAThere are almost no more than US$ 900 million liquid in the BCRA corresponding to the reserves of fixed terms in dollars – simple – since the few deposits of the money laundering of the Fiscal Package law 27,743 (close to US$ 250 million, since the large accounting and law firms do not recommend the deposit in order not to end up like the 25% of the taxpayers of the 2016 money laundering with causes of money laundering and tax evasion).
Now we find that the Government and its star ministers would be selling bonds from the Sustainability Guarantee Fund that depends on ANSES in order to try to contain the exchange rate of the Cash Settlement and generate a drop in the blue/free dollar to only end up lowering the financial exchange rates (CCL and MEP) so that they drag the blue/free. Therefore, we can say how the values that we are having lately move. a bit of market intervention.
The operation described in the last part of the previous paragraph is no other, no more and no less, than the same one that the current Ministers of Economy and Economic Deregulation carried out from April 2018 onwards in their previous roles as Minister of Finance and President of the BCRA.
The problem with the FGS is that it was created in 2008 with the exchange rate as of December 9, 2015, it had grown 10X and with the “supposed” release of exchange restrictions (cepo) as of December 31, 2015, its growth was 6.5x; but as of December 9, 2019, it suffered a 75% drop in the total it owned as a result of devaluation + inflation + use of the FGS to try to contain the exchange rate since April 2018, which began to collapse and in 4 months (May and August 2018) they went to seek loans from the IMF for US $ 35 and 58.7 MM that left a stigma that conditions us as a country since to pay the interest generated by these loans, they are made in dollars. Not being our own currency, it generates annualized inflation close to an average number of 50%, only the interest.
Today we find that just by checking the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) that between June and July of this year the Fund lost -17% in holdings of national public securities issued in dollars in those 31 total days. When we look at the report for the month of August 2024 we will find another drop in that same holding of Public Securities close to 22-24%. This means that in order to understand that unless many of the firm sentences held by ANSES for lawsuits of beneficiaries of pension benefits (retirees and pensioners) are accelerated, they will not be able to collect them.
Since the purpose of this Fund is both to ensure the payment of the beneficiaries’ final judgments and to make investments that promote the country’s development, the current Minister of Economy, since his assumption of office, has the intention of liquidating it on the international level “at a cheap price”, or in other words, for 10 or 15% of its value. The price of the fund last December was close to the equivalent of US$ 70 million and they intended to liquidate it for a little more than US$ 5 million.
Since he could not liquidate it at a low price, what he would now be trying to do is nothing more or less than destroy it by evaporating its resources.
Knowing that from this Fund the pension reform carried out by Congress could be paid with only $700 MM urgently to cover this year and in 2025 it can already be budgeted and stop using it, but the government preferred to veto the entire approved Law and in the face of the demonstrations against the veto, it repressed our parents-grandparents with clubs and gas. This being the possibility that they have fewer days left in the month at the end of retirement. Generating more consumption and avoiding this economic depression in which we were immersed, especially knowing that “ANY IDIOT LOWERS INFLATION WITH RECESSION” as the current President said in January 2023.
ECONOMIC ANALYST AND TAXIST
Source: Ambito
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