Reports circulating around the city suggest scenarios in which prices could rise by up to almost 90% and what would be needed for that to happen.
A recent report from the consultant 1816 maintains that dollar bonds could rise up to 89% if they manage to have one exit yield of 8%it should be noted that this is the rate used to calculate the value today of a promise by Argentina to pay in the future.
He 1816 report calculates the total return that global bonds (issued under US jurisdiction) would have in dollars between September 4, 2024 and June 1, 2025 in normalization scenarios.
For example, in the face of a “exit yield” of 14%, andl Global 2030 I would leave one 34% gainwhile the Global 2035 and the Global 2038 They would deliver a 35%.
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In a scenario of “exit yield” of 10%he Global 2030 would offer a 45% returnagainst a 68% of the Global 2035 and one of 63% of the Global 2038.
Finally, in the most optimistic scenario, an exit yield of 8% would give a return of 51% to Global 2030. would grant a 51% returnagainst a 89% of the Global 2035 or of the Global 2041 and one of the 81% in it Global 2038.
What are the expectations for sovereign debt in dollars at the end of the year?
“For the Global 2038 We expect a 27% increase by the end of the year while we observe the Central Bank’s purchases. We believe that Global 2035 will break the $45 ceiling if the market gains comfort on the path of reserve accumulation, after which we could see a significant rally,” they said from Adcap.
“For a cautious scenario, We continue to support Global 2030 and Bopreal 2026for which we expect a more resilient market even if the Government finds it difficult to accumulate reserves or if Milei’s approval rating deteriorates,” they added.
Source: Ambito
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