“Therefore, the price of $ 208 seems to me to respond to market dynamics, because it is agreed without government intervention, at least these days“, he raised.
For Buteler, “the price is justified, in addition, because at this moment the demand remains active for payments of December expenses, vacations and others.”
Considering current conditions, the financial analyst emphasized that “It is a quite logical price, in a range of between 200 and 210 pesos. But this does not mean that this is a value that will be maintained over time, it will depend on the evolution of different variables (demand for money and economic situation) “.
Buteler indicated that “what cannot be expected that, with an inflation of 50%, the free exchange rate remains unchanged; since it has to move in tune.”
On the contrary, the market analyst, Salvador Di Stéfano, said that “the last closing of the Central Bank balance sheet gives an equilibrium dollar of $ 220. In that sense, a blue dollar below that figure is given away“.
The specialist emphasized, in this sense, on the high weight of the monetary issue in financing the fiscal deficit, which could imply a delay in exchange rates if inflation accelerates.
For his part, the economist, Sergio Chouza, he assured that “he could not say it in a decisive way since it is a variable influenced by what happens with the financial markets and in turn by the news of what happens at the macro level in the most urgent thing that is the evolution of the signals with the agreement with the Monetary Fund “.
In more structural terms, he assured that the dollar “still at high levels” in all segments. “What I think is that since Argentina has inflation the nominality can be moved, and calmly every month new nominal maximums can be reached that does not mean that there is an acceleration, “he added.
On the rise dynamics, Chouza assured that it will be similar to that of 2021, “where the rises are below average inflation with the exception of the official segment make the correction look a bit more like inflation. “
“I see no grounds for a short acceleration in the blue Unless very negative news emerges about what will happen in March with the expiration and the balance of the negotiation. The movements will go below inflation, “he said.
Who also gave his opinion was the president of the consultancy Wise, Walter Morales. “The rise in the blue is purely and exclusively due to the uncertainty generated around the agreement with the IMF”He considered and explained that “it depends on the type of agreement,” that is, whether it is going to make Argentina sustainable or not. “
For Morales, the sustainability of the Argentine economy “We must not only think about it based on the growth of the economy, but also to avoid any problem of default from 2025, when we have strong maturities”. From his point of view, these unknowns “naturally make savers want to hedge with the dollar.”
Regarding the value that the US currency should reach if the negotiations come to fruition, he argued that it could grow between $ 45 and $ 50. “An agreement with the IMF has to start putting a ceiling on the blue around $ 255 or $ 260,” he said.Therefore, in his view, “every purchase that begins to be made now at these values is probably that we do not have an attractive return”.
Closing this Wednesday January 12, 2022
The blue dollar fell 50 cents this Wednesday, January 12, 2022, according to a survey by Ámbito in the Black Foreign Currency Market, after equaling its historical maximum in nominal terms the previous day.
In a highly volatile week, the dollar informal fell back to $ 208.50 on this journey. Therefore, the spread with the wholesale exchange rate, which is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), fell to 101.1%.
The bill had dropped by $ 2 on Monday, but on Tuesday it bounced strongly to $ 209, a figure that had only reached on December 29, 2021.
In December, the parallel dollar advanced 3.2% ($ 6.50), against a monthly inflation that the market estimated at 3.4% according to the latest REM of the BCRA.
Likewise, in the accumulated of 2021 it had a rise of 25.3% ($ 42), almost half with respect to the expected inflation of the period. However, it is worth remembering that in 2020 it had shown a sharp jump of 111%.
Source From: Ambito
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