Financial stock prices also recorded their biggest weekly decline since mid-July. Temporary floor? Experts analyze expectations.
Financial dollar prices have just registered their biggest weekly decline since mid-July, in addition to having reached the lowest value in the last three months, With the MEP currently trading at $1,231.33. The reason for this sharp decline, according to experts, is due to a greater private supply as well as the intervention in the market by the Central Bank (BCRA)The question then is whether it will continue to fall or whether it has already found its bottom.
For economist Gustavo Ber, the exchange rate calm would extend due to several factors, among which are: money laundering, tax obligations, the moratorium and current needs for pesos, to which bets on the “carry trade” have been added. “I do not estimate in the current internal and external context a rebound in financial and free currency dollars, but rather On the contrary, a greater contraction of the gap in the short term“, he told Scope.
In turn, the economist Federico Glustein contributed that The MEP floor could be temporary. And he analyzed the context in which it occurred: “First we have to know what will happen with Milei’s DNU that vetoes retirement mobility, that could bring a dollarization by coverage that could trigger the price. Added to that, There are not enough reserves to meet the IMF obligations of around US$1.5 billion, so the Government will probably stop intervening. and sell those currencies; therefore, there could be continued increases due to demand.”
“The MEP at $1,215 I suppose will be the lowest value until this political and economic uncertainty goes away. We will have to analyze the effect of the demand for pesos to pay for personal property and the proposed 5-year advance that could increase the supply of foreign currency and therefore continue to decline. These opposing effects, adding money laundering, could define a dollar near the floor If there are no political effects, while it could condition what happens with politics to a price closer to the current blue dollar than to the MEP floor,” he concluded.
MEP dollar: time to buy?
In conversation with this media, the analyst Christian Buteler He said he believes that the MEP dollar It is in the floor area“If it weren’t for the government’s intervention and the restrictions, the value would not be those.” Companies cannot access freely, there is 20% of the export dollar that is settled there, without that, the value would be much higher And in addition, in the last two months, the Central Bank has intervened very directly.”
He also mentioned that another influencing factor is that The official dollar is also behindand he exemplified this by saying that the multilateral real exchange rate is at a lower level than a year ago. “The truth is that for me These are purchase values. This does not mean that this imbalance in the exchange rate cannot be sustained for a while longer, that is something that cannot be known, but it is a value to acquire,” Buteler concluded.
Blue dollar vs MEP dollar
If we compare the values, the MEP on August 5 was at $1,346 and the blue dollar on the same date was worth $1,390. Currently, the MEP dollar is worth $1,252, which implies a 7% drop.while the informal currency fell to $1,240, which implies a drop of 10.8% since that date.
“The proximity of money laundering causes many economic agents to sell blue dollars to enter the money laundering in pesos in an amount less than $100 million, in order to recover said pesos after September 30 and to be able to buy MEP dollars in the market“, the analyst explained in his column Salvador Di Stefano.
That is why the analyst believes that The blue will go down in September, and the MEP could go up in October“All roads lead to the blue dollar being at a lower price than the MEP dollar in this scenario,” he explained.
Source: Ambito
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