On Tuesday the 11th, the dollar quoted on the parallel market had reached $209 and equaled the historical record of December 29.
Finally, this session rose $1, which meant that it rose to a new high, since on Wednesday the parallel price closed at $208.50.
Likewise, in the accumulated of 2021 it had an increase of 25.3% ($42), almost half with respect to the expected inflation of the period. However, it is worth remembering that in 2020 it had shown a sharp jump of 111%.
Blue dollar: expensive or cheap?
Ámbito consulted financial analysts about How much should the parallel exchange rate be worth? The answers are mixed.
“The last closing balance of the Central Bank gives a balance dollar of $220. In that sense, a blue below that figure is given away,” market analyst Salvador Di Stéfano told this medium, who emphasized the high weight of the monetary issue in financing the fiscal deficit, which could imply a delay in exchange rates if inflation accelerates.
For his part, the economist Gustavo Ber held that investors “continue to lean towards hedging in a climate of both internal and external uncertainty, where the rise in rates in the US becomes a serious challenge for emerging markets“.
Specialists also warn that the performance of blue will depend on several factors, including the negotiations with the IMF and the strategy regarding the management of the official exchange rate.
financial analyst, Christian Buteler, commented to this medium that “it is always difficult to put a price on the unofficial exchange rate, whether blue or stock market, because being free one could infer that the value is the logical one of the market for this moment“.
Considering the current conditions, the financial analyst emphasized that “it is a quite logical price, in a range between 200 and 210 pesos. But this does not mean that this is a value that will be maintained over time, it will depend on the evolution of different variables (money demand and economic situation)”.
Buteler indicated that “what cannot be claimed is that, with 50% inflation, the free exchange rate remains unchanged, since it has to move in tune.”
For his part, the economist Sergio Chouza, assured that “I could not say it in a decisive way since it is a variable influenced by what happens with the financial markets and in turn by the news of what happens at the macro level in the most urgent thing that is the evolution on the signals with the agreement with the Monetary Fund”.
In more structural terms, he assured that the dollar “still at high levels” in all segments. “What I believe is that since Argentina has inflation nominality can be moved, and quietly every month new nominal maximums can be reached That does not mean that an acceleration is taking place,” he added.
Regarding the rise dynamics, Chouza assured that it will be similar to that of 2021, “where the increases are below average inflation with the exception of the official segment make the correction look a little more like inflation.
“I see no rationale for a short acceleration on the blue unless there is a very negative news about what is going to happen in March with the expiration and the balance of the trade. The movements are going to go below inflation,” he said.
Who also gave his opinion was the president of the consulting firm Wise, Walter Morales. “The rise in blue is purely and exclusively due to the uncertainty generated around the agreement with the IMF”, considered and explained that “it depends on the type of agreement”, that is, if it is going to make Argentina sustainable or not”.
For Morales, the sustainability of the Argentine economy “Not only do we have to think about it based on the growth of the economy, but also to avoid any problem of default from 2025, when we have strong maturities”. From his point of view, these unknowns “naturally make savers want to hedge with the dollar.”
As for the value that the US currency should reach if the negotiations come to fruition, he said that it could grow between $45 and $50. “An agreement with the IMF has to begin to put a ceiling on blue around $255 or $260,” he said., with which in his opinion “every purchase that begins to be made now in these securities is probably that we will not have an attractive performance.”
What is the blue dollar?
The value of the blue dollar has a substantial difference with the official dollar, which is acquired in banks and has an established price. Its sale is in the informal market, without regulations or limits, and for this reason it is generally operated at a value greater than the official dollar.
Why is it called the blue dollar?
The origin of the blue dollar as a denomination for the operation of the banknote in the informal market is not clear. But there are theories.
An explanation of its name indicates that it is so called because in English, “blue”, in addition to naming the color blue, refers to something “dark”.
Another theory relates it to purchase operations through bonds or shares of companies known as “blue chips”. They also link it to the approximate color that appears when a fibron is applied to detect counterfeit bills.
The price of the blue dollar in the last 30 days
So far this month, the blue dollar shows a rise of just $1.
Price of the savings or tourist dollar, from January 13
The dollar today advances five cents to $109.10 this Thursday, January 13, 2022, -without taxes-, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the currency in Banco Nación remains at $108.50.
More news about the Blue Dollar and the Dollar
What were the causes of the strong rise in the blue dollar
They detect the two reasons that worsened the financial conditions in the country
The dollar and the 2 exchange adjustment alternatives: sharp jump or monthly correction?
In recent months, Argentines preferred the savings dollar over the blue
How much will the dollar rise in 2022, according to the market
Source From: Ambito
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