Blue dollar: the reasons why it keeps falling and still hasn’t found a bottom

He blue dollar write down your third consecutive loss This Thursday, September 19th and is quoted at $1,210 for purchase and $1,240 for sale, According to a survey by Scope in the caves of the city. So the question that arises is, why does it keep falling and what is the floor for the greenback?

It happens that the parallel ticket accumulates a fall of $35 in three days and operates at three-and-a-half-month lows. In this way, it shortens the gap with the MEP, which operates slightly above $1,206. Meanwhile, the spread with the official exchange rate it is positioned at 28.5%.

In dialogue with Scope, Andres Reschinianalyst at F2 Financial Solutionsexplains that the decline of the blue does not come as a surprise to him. “In reality, I was more struck by the distance it had before with respect to the Contado con Liqui (CCL). Beyond the rises or falls, the most logical thing is that as restrictions are lifted, these two variants of the exchange rate tend to balance out.”

It is worth remembering that the National Securities Commission (CNV) on Thursday further relaxed access to the capital market for financial exchange rates.

In line with eventually eliminating the exchange rate trapthe Government announced two changes to the current regulations that facilitate operations. The limitation for processing and/or settling sales of negotiable securities with settlement in foreign currency – both in local and foreign jurisdictions – was made more flexible, when clients hold, in foreign currency, positions involving collateral and/or repurchase agreements and/or any type of financing through operations in the capital market.

The second change, meanwhile, is linked to the scheduling regime: the need for five days’ notice is eliminated, in operations greater than 200 million pesos for residents and in general operations for non-residents.

Blue dollar: the causes of its marked decline

The economist Federico Glustein He comments, in conversation with this media, that the fall of the blue is due to the fall of the financial ones that, in part, drag down the price of the illegal bill.

“We have a MEP on the verge of $1,200. Added to the Fed’s rate cut, which improves the position of emerging countries with respect to the dollar, it motivates our country to receive foreign currency in search of a higher rate despite the greater risk and some macro data and political actions that help stabilize the exchange situation, such as falling wholesale inflation, the recovery of some sectors and what the economy announced that foreign currency had for debt payments for 2025.”indicates.

For its part, for Leo Anzalonedirector of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC) the fall of the blue dollar “has multiple explanations.” For the strategist, “it may be that there are people and companies getting rid of dollars to meet obligations,” another part may be due to the strengthening of emerging currencies that should be seen after the Fed rate cut, in line with what Glustein has suggested.

However, Anzalone recalls that the one from blue It is a marginal market, so it is recommended to “closely monitor financial dollars and, above all, the complex dynamics of the Central Bank’s reserves.”