With social indicators on the decline, Milei repeats himself

The economic freeze is beginning to have an impact on the social mood. The hype about falling inflation and surplus is less appealing. Ordinary people have other problems, measured by other indices: poverty and unemploymentfor example. The latest surveys show a Milei’s image declines and disapproval of his administration increasesUntil now, the chainsaw was countered only with patience on the part of society. Something has changed.

The advantage for Milei is that, although his image is declining, there is no counterweight. Nobody capitalizes, no leader from another space is better seen than before. The misfortune of many is a relief for the government. This week that ends was another example of the breakdown of the opposition parties: the internal conflict of Peronism revived, especially in Buenos Aires with the Axel Kicillof vs La Cámpora arm wrestlingand radicalism takes stock of the damage, with “preventive” suspension of deputies on the menu.

However, despite the hardships of others, the situation has turned on a yellow light in the government’s control room. And, so far, the response has been weak: Maybe the magician ran out of tricks. Milei repeats herself, she seeks to recreate a vaporous mysticism. And at the same time she falls into other people’s mistakes, into those of “the caste”, which Freedom Moves Forward (LLA) It looks more and more like it.

The first performance was held last Sunday, with the Milei’s show in Congress. He appealed to the football maxim of “a winning team is not touched.” He returned to a night event, threatening to take over prime time television, as had happened with the opening of the legislative assembly or with the signing of the May Pact in TucumánThis time, there was a television blackout. The other trick that the President resorted to has already been seen, it is no longer effective, it is beginning to get old: the criticism of “the caste”, the chicanery, the aggressive tone and the economicist discourse. Society now seems to demand results. Not those of Excel, but those of the pocket and the refrigerator.

The déjà vu will continue in the coming days. On Tuesday at the UNwith a critical speech against the organization, where he will seek to position himself on the global map with lateral questions to the world elites, as he did at the Davos Forum. Then, returning to this pampas, he will try to recreate the libertarian epic of Lezama Park to launch LLA as a national party for the 2025 legislative elections. The scenario will be the same as the one used to close the 2021 campaign. A return to the myth of originThere will be differences in the photo. The bodyguards of those hours have either moved away or have been removed from the management stage.

Inbreeding

But Milei will not only repeat himself in his attempt to maintain the link with his voters. He is also starting to stumble over stones that others have hit. As happened before with Kirchnerism (and still happens to it, judging by Máximo Kirchner’s act on Friday), he is talking to himself. Libertarians pat each other on the back, congratulate each other, close an endogamous circle. It was noticeable on the networks, in every post, in the self-satisfied comments. In Congress, last Sunday, the picture was clearer and more present. The Chamber of Deputies was half-empty and there were shouts of cheers at every scripted pause. If it is a mere communication strategy, then so be it. If Milei buys the microclimate, he will be in trouble.

The President also began to practice this old national sport: drawing generous budgetsstrikingly optimistic, which in practice are then impossible to meet. The goals of the dollar at $1.207 and inflation barely above 18% made the opposition blush. No opponent will be able to raise a finger and try to get angry. The past condemns them.

The strategies are also reiterated. As in the Ley Bases, which was reduced by almost half in the thorny path that led to its approval, now the spending guidelines will be negotiable. With obvious exaggerations. For example, the call to the governors to Cutting $60 billion suddenly became a dreama utopia. A few days later the target was US$20 billion, according to the pro-government José Luis Espert, head of the Budget Committee. And who knows how much that bill will end up being.

The truth is that the provincial leaders will be the key to passing the law. Neither the allies of Together for Changenor are the provincialist labels that usually support the Government willing to continue granting without rewards. Therefore, one-on-one meetings will be key. Works, debts of pension funds, subsidies for transport, teachers’ salaries, etc., are widespread claims in all regions. Likewise, each province has a different reality. As for the whole, in fact they have had better fiscal results than the Nation for years. They know this. Mileiwhich sought to tip the balance between a national deficit state and subnational surplus states. He pulled the rope, but it is already close to breaking.

Nor will it be enough to shield the club from vetoes. The heroes who celebrated the halt to the pension reform (a celebration that explains the drop in polls) could become a scrum as Milei urged them to do at the barbecue. But that scrum would be enough to contain the opposition projects with two thirds in each chamber. To approve its own initiatives, the ruling party needs to build majoritiesTo do so, he will have to deploy other tactics, which include, of course, those of the caste.

Game of the goose

In this context, it is not even clear how the relationship with the PRO will continue. A wavering link that a pure-blooded Macrista defined as “the game of the goose”. One square goes back, two squares go forward. Or the other way around. Nine deputies of the yellow seal were absent from the barbecue of the “87 heroes”. A way of marking distance. Those who went sat closer to Milei’s main table than the libertarians themselves. The request for the “scrum” has a double meaning: a bid to speed up the merger that Milei advocates Patricia Bullrich (also part of the main table) despite Mauricio Macri or a gesture of goodwill towards the former president.

The Macri vs Bullrich war The opposition is crossing the PRO and redefining the link with LLA. Both sides accuse their opponents of lacking strength. The champions of the Minister of Security read that those who sat in the Olivos quincho do not respond to Macri. Those close to the former president observe that there were presences of courtesy, but that it is Bullrich “who counts on the fingers of one hand” the legislators themselves.

What happened on Friday regarding the aviation conflict was another symptom. Macri published a long tweet with proposals for Aerolíneas, with a focus on privatization. Almost immediately the Government came up with an alternative solution, the operation of the company through a private company in the region, to put pressure on the unions. “We don’t need any privatization or any privatization project,” first of all. “Macri’s post is very long, we didn’t read it. Also, what position does he hold?”they later noted in the Casa Rosada, not without sarcasm.

However, while Balcarce 50 is looking for a way to dilute Macrism and leave it on the brink of extinction, the former president is analyzing the 2025 strategy. Although in the Province he seems more open to agreeing with the libertarians, he aspires to keep the strength of CABA protected with his own cadres.

A priori, Macri aims not to run for office, but to strengthen María Eugenia Vidal, whom he will position to head a list for either Deputies or Senators. The former governor of Buenos Aires has been raising her profile from the Pensar Foundation. From Jorge Macri’s cabinet, Waldo Wolff (Security) and Fernán Quirós (Health) They are the best equipped for the proselytizing adventure. Roberto Garcia Moritan (Economic Development) He shows his desire, but he is not a pure yellow, since his party is United Republicanswhich oscillates between the PRO and the libertarians. It is an option, but it does not play an internal role.