The Economic Expectations Survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay revealed the forecasts of economic agents about the exchange rate and GDP.
He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) spread its Economic Expectations Survey (EEA), where economic agents strongly adjusted their projections on the value of the dollar for the coming months, while they revised downwards those of growth of this year.
As a result of the greenback’s rally in recent weeks, including a 30-month high, the median response from analysts consulted by the BCU anticipated that the dollar It will close the month at 41.95 pesos, a figure that represents 4.09% more than the expected value for last month.
The increase was more moderate with respect to expectations for the exchange rate at the end of the year, since the market expects it to close at 41.30 pesos, that is, just below its current level, but in any case it represents 0.98% compared to last month’s forecasts.
Finally, when delving into the projections for the coming years, they projected a dollar at 43.30 pesos by the end of 2025 and 45.50 pesos by the end of 2026, which is equivalent to increases of 1.41% and 1.79 %, respectively.
A drop in growth projections
On the other hand, the analysts consulted by the BCU projected a growth of 3% of GDP, which represents a cut of 30 basis points in relation to August expectations, despite the forecast that the third quarter will close with a year-on-year increase of 3.84%.
On the other hand, the forecasts remained unchanged at a growth of 2.5%, both for next year and for 2026, the same figure they expect for the average of the next five years.
Finally, the economic agents were consulted by the labor market and projected a rate of employment of 58.80% for this year, reaching 58.90% in subsequent years, as well as a reduction in unemployment, which would go from 8.30% this year to 8.10% in 2025 and 7.90% in 2026.
Regarding the fiscal framework, the forecast is that the fiscal deficit be 4% this year, cutting to 3.5% in the next two years.
Source: Ambito
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