The one who bet on the “carry trade” won almost 30% in dollars in the last three months. Is it still in October?

The window currently open to do “carry trade” -which involves selling dollars to make the rate in pesos and then dollarizing assets again-, It is, for the moment, the longest duration so far this year. Thus, various reports maintain that The one who bet on the financial bicycle in the last three months obtained a profit of almost 30% in dollars and many wonder if this possibility will still be available.

“Although the returns are not better than those observed between February and March, the accumulated profit continues to increase. Since the current episode began, the gain in dollars using the peso rate is 28%, which was achieved in three months thanks to a 25% drop in gaps.“, they explained from Aurum Values.

But, for him “carry trade” remains an option, Financial exchange rates should continue without so many variations and the rate should remain within desirable territory.

From the consultant 1816 They analyzed what happened last month: “The special BBPP regime and the moratorium generated extraordinary demand for pesos for up to US$950 billion in September (that was the collection for both taxes), an amount not so far from what CCL’s supply contributes to the exporting blend every month.” Therefore, they considered that this flow was key to “the exceptional performance of the ‘carry trade’ in recent weeks”.

Regarding what may happen in October they anticipated: “Without that ahead of us, the Government has a lot of firepower if it wants to contain the CCL (thanks to the extraordinary money laundering numbers, but also to the fact that since July the BCRA bought more in the MULC than it sold in financial FX), although it would be at the expense of net reserves.

It should be noted that in September parallel dollars closed lower for the third consecutive month. The reasons were several: on the one hand, the interventions of the BCRA in the financial market, on the other the liquidations of the exporters andas mentioned before, the flow of money generated by the advance of Personal Assets and the moratorium.

Investors: how to put together a strategy in pesos

“We recommend a position with greater weighting in CER instruments, both for the short and long term. Prices reflect an optimistic inflation scenario but within the range of what is possible. In this context, we are partially inclined to inflation-adjustable bonds, which currently offer real rates of IRR 7% for 2025 and IRR 11% starting in 2026″they explained from Cohen.

Regarding the “carry trade”, this stock broker recommended “take a somewhat greater weight in financial dollars to dollarize since in real terms, these assets have returned to their lowest level in five years, with prices similar to those recorded during the 2019 PASO.” And if they had to choose the most desirable instruments to do it, they proposed the following portfolio: 30% TZX25 (CER +7%) + 30% TZX26 (CER +10%) +25% S31E5 (IRR 56%) + 15% TZV25 (devaluation -2%).

From IOL investingonline, meanwhile, they chose two instruments. On the one hand, the Capitalizable Treasury Bill maturing in December 2024 (S13D4), since “it presents us with an excellent opportunity to bet on the short-term ‘carry trade’. It yields an effective monthly rate of 3.7%, which could be in line with future inflation. In turn, it will allow us to reduce the risk and duration of the portfolio.”

And on the other hand, they added, the Treasury Bond adjustable by CER maturing in 2026 (TX26). “The TX26 is a bond maturing in November 2026 that adjusts its capital for inflation through the CER coefficient and amortizes in five installments starting this year. Today it yields CER+10%, which makes it an attractive option given its high real rate compared to other bonds of similar maturity. and its imminent semiannual amortizations”.

In closing, they pointed out that “the real interest rate above 10% has proven to be high in historical perspective, and therefore a good investment option today. “Ideal instrument to bet that the variation in inflation will be greater than the exchange rate (‘carry trade’).”