“The GDP in pesos grew much more due to inflation than the liabilities in dollars increased due to devaluation,” said the specialist in dialogue with Ámbito.
It is worth noting that, of the total debt stock as of December 31, 70% corresponded to debt in dollars, while the remaining 30% was in pesos. However, while the former fell 0.4% annually, liabilities in local currency rose 36.5% (measured in dollars).
“There is a behavior that seems virtuous since you have less debt over the product, and at the same time the proportion of debt in dollars was reducedWaldman added,
SAlthough the economist again clarified that this was helped by the aforementioned “statistical effect” and that it was not due to debt cancellation, he highlighted as “genuinely good” the change in the composition of the debt in foreign currency, since debt was exchanged with organizations such as the IMF or the Paris Club, for debt with the Central Bank (BCRA), considered more sustainable.
Regarding the debt in pesos, that not indexed to inflation was reduced with respect to the GDP due to the fact that the economic activity grew 10 points since during the year the rates were negative in real terms. On the contrary, that indexed to inflation (CER) showed an advance in relation to the product. Regarding the latter, Waldman explained that there were many people who switched from Lepase to bills or bonds tied to price increases.
According to a report from the Congressional Budget Office (OPC), in 2021 the Treasury held 33 tenders for securities in domestic currency, through which it obtained a total of $4.8 trillion, at an average term of 323 days.
Thus, it closed 2021 with net financing in local currency of $746,042 million, equivalent to about 1.7% of GDP. It represented a roll-over of 122% compared to the maturities of the period.
At the same time, including transfers of profits, which do not constitute debt, net assistance to the Treasury by the BCRA totaled 4.6% of the GDP estimated for 2021.
For 2022, debt maturities are estimated for the equivalent of US$93,017 million. Most of the total maturities correspond to government bonds in national currency, for the equivalent of US$47,755 million. However, all eyes are on the almost $19bn in maturities with the IMF.
“The most important thing regarding debt is still when and what you sign with the Fund. It is still what makes it difficult for you to refinance maturities in dollars with private parties and what generates uncertainty throughout the economy,” Waldman said.
Source From: Ambito
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