He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) revealed that analysts anticipate a dollar more expensive by the end of the year, after they adjusted their projections upwards by 0.96% and expected a exchange rate at 41.70 pesos for the last day of next December.
At the same time, when analyzing the inflation expectations, They reduced their CPI forecasts in the short, medium and long term, keeping them in all cases within the target range set by the monetary authority.
Projections on the dollar
With respect to the dollar, the Economic Expectations Survey(EEE) reflected that the median of the responses placed the exchange rate at 41.61 pesos for the last business day of 2024, above the 41.30 they expected last month.
On the other hand, they reduced their forecasts for the end of the month, since in September they anticipate a US currency at 41.95 pesos, while they expect October to end at 41.55 pesos.
At the same time, they raised their projections for the coming years. In 2025 they went from a dollar at 43.21 pesos to 43.60, while in 2026 they moved from 45.23 to 45.90 pesos.
Inflation expectations fall again
In parallel, while the inflation It has been within the target range for 16 consecutive months, analysts corrected their forecasts downwards. Thus, they anticipated a CPI annual rate of 5.20% for 2024, five basis points less than the previous month.
For next year, the expectations They are 5.70% annually, a reduction of ten basis points compared to the previous survey, while for 2026 the projections are also 5.70%, a decrease of nine basis points.
Source: Ambito
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