The dollar bonds fall into the foreign place but the country risk It remains below 1,100 basis points, after an upward rally in the previous week. It should be noted that it continues the influence of money laundering but it still remains a source of tension with public universities.
As Grupo SBS revealed, last week, end to end, Globals rose 0.7% and Bonares 2%. The BOPREALES advanced 0.7% in the last five days. On this day, analysts highlight profit taking that has a negative impact on quotes in New York.
Economic data: what they say in the city
“We are in a context where we have a Government that is trying to do something very complex in political and social conditions that are not conducive to doing so.. Any government that faces the challenge of making an adjustment also faces wear and tear.“said the political scientist in radio statements. Lucas Romero.
“This is Milei’s challenge, it is that of a government that He has to organize the economy before politics gets disordered. That is, decisions had to be made to organize the economy, to put it in healthy conditions so that it produced growth and benefits for the people, but for that to happen others had to be made that were going to cause pain,” he expressed.
“While we continue to believe that the strong appreciation of the peso makes carry positions more risky, The government remains firm in containing the gap given the disinflation objective“said the SBS Group.
For his part, economist Gustavo Ber said: “Optimism continues to be fueled mainly by a growing appreciation of the process of normalization of the economy, a greater appetite for global risk and money laundering. Investors turn to the market in search of profitability for their funds, all in a world where Central Banks are at this stage more oriented toward “easing” strategies, stated the economist. Gustavo Ber.
“If the Government decided to reduce crawling to further support the disinflationary process, it would be expected that the Treasury reduce rates in pesos (do not validate ‘prize’ in the next tender) to avoid a widening of the spread with the pace of devaluation“, he estimated Personal Investment Portfolio.
In turn, VatNet Financial Research stated: “The greater financial optimism is notablewhich should be tested soon given the signs of economic weakness that have not yet been overcome.”
“Since the ruling party won the elections in the runoff, Utility companies were the second best performers among local stocks, with an average return of 147% in dollarsonly surpassed by the banks,” recalled Delphos Investment.
In turn, Andrés Vernengo of Capital Markets Argentina added: “Sovereign bonds in dollars continued to compress yields, but show certain sign of exhaustion, which we estimate is a product of the fact that we are halfway to the end of the extension of the money laundering period“.
“The unknown is at what point we will see profit taking along the dollar curves and at what rate they will find a support level,” he added.
“The stocks can wait, while The prices of dollars in the market allow companies to be able to remit dollars abroad by purchasing the bills freely between individuals.. Today the gap between the export dollar and the CCL dollar (counted with settlement) is barely 15.5% and could be reduced to 0%,” estimated analyst Salvador Di Stefano.
“In the last quarter of the year, The government was able to validate a financial surplus thanks to the income from the moratorium and improvement in economic activity, a reduction to zero of the country tax, a drop in country riskconvergence of the rate in pesos adjusted for inflation with the rate in dollars, and that alternative dollars are quoted at levels similar to the wholesale dollar,” he added.
“At these prices, it seems to be healthy to take profits on sovereign bonds taking into account the rally they have had in recent months. For those with a more long-term vision, bonds with longer maturities look more attractive,” Rava Bursátil said.
“In a context of stabilization of the Argentine macroeconomy, with lower inflation and volatility in the financial exchange rate, Argentine real rates are positioned as one of the most attractive in the region“said Delphos Investment.
“The extraordinary returns of local assets have not taken a break since July. The euphoria is greater every day, both in the world of pesos and in that of hard dollar debt. Win, like and score“could sum up the last few weeks of the financial market,” said consulting firm GMA.
ADRs and S&P Merval
He S&P Merval It starts the week on the rise, rising 2.4% to 1,819,433.81 points. Thus, the roles that are making the most progress are: Stock Bank (+0.9%), Transener (+0.8%) and Mirgor (+0.6%). Regarding the Argentine companies listed in New York, the papers operate mainly in negative: the main ones, Telecom (+1.7%), irsa (+1.6%), and America Corporation (+1.6%).
Source: Ambito
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