Supermarket sales rebounded 0.2% in the month-on-month measurement in August, but they fell on a year-on-year basis by 10.1%. In this slight improvement between one month and the next, one fact stands out: The share of credit card financing grows 10 points compared to the previous year.
The data is shared Agustín Lodolaeconomist and professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the University of La Plata (UNLP). “Supermarket sales continue to fall and income falls short“, warned the professional on his social network account X.
According to the supermarket sales report, the INDEC reports that in August sales at current prices made with credit cards totaled $700,056.4 million, that is, 46.2% of total sales and a percentage variation compared to August 2023 of 294.6%.
The increase in the use of this payment method – which implies greater indebtedness for families – responds to the deterioration of purchasing powerdespite the relative stability that the disinflationary process generates.
In any case, although the CPI has decelerated to 3.5% month-on-month in September and lowered to 209% year-on-year, the core inflation remains in 3.3%. For economists, Martin Kalos and Pablo Bercovich This situation “accounts for the difficulties of continue to puncture the current level of inflation in the coming months.”
Regarding the recovery levels of consumption, professionals warned in the IPA Observatory report that “begin to predominate”niches‘ consumption due to improvements in the real income of the “well-off classes.”
On the contrary, mass consumption goods and services “they are losing prominence”. It is that the prices of basic services, which have no substitutes in the market, increased “well above average inflation” during the Milei government, which “implies that the hit to the pockets was much greater than the Government itself estimates”.
Thus, sales from wholesale self-service stores and supermarkets show crisis levels until July, and shopping malls are the mass sales places that “fewer are suffering the effect of the crisis in the domestic market”.
”Consumption niches”: the phenomenon that economists warn about due to differences in the evolution of income
The differences in the evolution of the consumption segments respond to the heterogeneous recovery of salaries.
For Luis Camposresearcher of CTA Institute of Studies and Training In July the salary of registered workers beat inflation. However, the private sector is 2.6% down from November 2023 and the sector public cut the fall to 16.9%. In historical terms we are still underground: 20% and 35% below 2016 respectively.
“From November 2023, The non-recorded private salary is the one with the greatest gap in evolution compared to inflationwhile public sector income is increasingly evolving at a slower pace than inflation. But The registered private sector is at least recovering its levels prior to the Milei Governmentunlike the rest of the salaried workers,” explain Kalos and Bercovich.
For this reason, a “consumption sophistication process” mostly focused on shopping malls, technological products and those related to the use of free time. For example, the car patent increased +42% y-o-y in September, mostly those of imported origin than national ones. “Obviously, also linked to the fluctuations in the exchange rate in recent years,” the report describes.
Lower ticket, higher frequency: how often will consumers buy
Regarding the frequency with which consumers go to supermarkets to buy, a source linked to the processing of card transaction data records that customers “They go to the supermarket more times than last year, because she is cautious in purchases” but as the year goes by “it goes less, because there is a little more stability.”
This dynamism also has to do with the pronounced inflationary acceleration during electoral times. “Last year they went and bought everything they could”says the source.
On the other hand, as a result of the economic recession, the rebound in consumption is seen through promotions and discounts: “This year they go several times to take advantage of supermarket offers and discount offers from payment methods (banks, wallets, QR, contactless, etc.)”
Likewise, the accumulated January-August 2024 presents a decreasing variation of 11.5% in salescompared to the same period in 2023.
Source: Ambito
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