the parallel ticket thus broke its previous historical maximum of $211 that it had marked on Tuesday, with which the exchange gap reached 104.3%, the highest level in more than two months.
Therefore, some operators believe that the rise in the informal dollar could continue in the next few days, even they do not rule out that it exceeds the $220 level in January or February, taking into account the evolution of the monetary base, together with the stock of remunerated liabilities of the BCRA (the sum of Passive Repos, plus the Leliq), and as long as there are no encouraging signs in relation to the Government’s negotiations with the IMF.
“Following the evolution of different monetary indicators, it gives me that the blue should be at $225 today”, An analyst commented off.
The new rise in the parallel dollar occurred in tune with the strong advance registered by the financial dollars on the Stock Exchange: the MEP climbed almost $3 to $206.58, while the “counted with liqui” (CCL) soared to more than $216 (closed at $216.39).
“Financial dollars continue to be supported as traders are still leaning towards hedging in the current context of external and internal uncertainty that invites defensive positioning,” one economist pointed out.
Not even a rebound in dollar bonds managed to calm the exchange tension. This Wednesday, the titles in dollars rebounded up to 4% (Bonar 2041), after a long negative streak, which had led the rates of return (IRR) to exceed 25% per year on average.
Another factor that causes concern in the market is the sale of BCRA reserves, which between Tuesday and Wednesday had to get rid of more than 100 million dollars to supply genuine market demand.
For Andrés Borenstein, Chief Economist at Econviews, the rise in the blue is basically explained by “an excess of weights and a deficit of confidence”. “A distraction in the price of the blue dollar will depend a lot on whether the agreement with the IMF finally moves forward, and on whether the BCRA depreciates the official dollar a little faster, with which there will be room to decompress somewhat the” stocks of the stocks” (to financial dollars),” he estimated.
For his part, the financial analyst, Christian Buteler, considers this rise in the blue dollar “logical”, “given the amount of pesos that has been issued during December”. “As soon as the demand for money starts to fall a bit, the blue starts to rise”, he pointed.
According to your opinion, “The advance of the parallel can be stopped if the MEP dollar falls. Otherwise, it seems to me that we are going to have a summer with a rise in the blue dollar a little above what we have had in recent summers.”
For John Paul Albornoz, Ecolatina economist, two factors are playing in the rise of the blue, one seasonal and the other specific to the current situation.
First of all, it notes that “The strong seasonal increase in the demand for money in December begins to normalize towards the second half of January, and continues like this in the first quarter of the year. A portion of this lower demand for pesos is surely being channeled into the parallel market.”
Second, he argued that “The political situation does not help: the fact that the arc continues to be drawn with respect to the agreement with the IMF does not allow us to anchor expectations and dispel doubts about a disorderly exchange rate event (I think there are still tools to avoid it, but it is difficult to rule it out). This uncertainty political-economic is reflected in the Argentine sounding board that is the dollar”.
For his part, the economist Federico Glustein indicated that there is “a scenario of uncertainty due to the economic path and rumors about the possibility of a default with the Fund”.
“Clearly there is a coverage towards the dollar of the agents that begin to demand free currencies and the inflation data that clearly show that there is no slowdown. All that set of variables and the distrust in the economic plan, which has not yet been knows and generates distrust, pushes the blue”.
Going forward, the economist sees the price of blue “higher”, especially “In these next few days, although close to a provisional ceiling that it reaches when it picks up a bit of momentum. It will be difficult to reach a figure of $220 this week, putting a psychological barrier.”
Source From: Ambito
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