He blue dollar closed at $1,190 in October and has already dropped $310 (-20.7%) since the record of July 12, when it reached the $1,500according to the survey of Scope. The gap With the wholesale exchange rate it is at 20%, the lowest in May. With the strong supply of foreign currency resulting from money launderingthe informal exchange rate remains at mid-October values.
Financial exchange rates also continued to decline during the month: they closed October at $1,158 he CCL already $1,131 he MEPwhile the gaps fell to 16.8% and 14.1%respectively.
Blue dollar: how does the extension of money laundering influence?
The minister of Economy, Luis Caputoannounced that the Government decided to extend again the end of the first stage of asset regularizationthis time, until next Friday, November 8 inclusive. “It was due to some computer problems and administrative regarding the transfer from abroad of the payment of the tax”, revealed the head of the Treasury Palace.
The first stage, which concluded this Thursday, October 31had already been extended by a month – the official deadline was until September 31 -. In this way, the funds can be regularized between November 1, 2024 and November 8, 2024, whether or not funds have been regularized as of October 31, 2024, inclusive.
It should be noted that the extension of money laundering will help the supply of dollars within the market.
Blue dollar for November: between the “change pax” and the resurgence
He blue dollar has shown a downward trend for months, which is explained beyond the money laundering, especially by the “liquidity control policy by the Central Bank and intervention in financial institutions to lower expectations”as explained Leonardo Anzalonedirector of Center for Political and Economic Studies (Cepec).
“However, we must closely monitor the dynamics of laundering dollars, which are no longer going to enter, and observe whether they also begin to leave the financial system.”Anzalone added.
“The blue would maintain the difference with the MEP to be operational while laundering continues to operate in its different phases, added to the vacation and bonus period where it can have more mobility,” added the economist. Federico Glustein.
For his part, the economist Gustavo Ber He said that, in his opinion, “the climate of exchange calm would extend.” In this way, watch the financial and free dollars “loosening their way to a exchange rate convergence“. In line with the statements of the Government, which communicated weeks ago that “The exit from the stocks is getting closer and closer”.
“We also have to see what the liquidity and, therefore, interest rate decisions that the Central Bank will make, but above all the Treasury, lower rates are validated and that, to some extent, can overheat the exchange rates,” Anzalone highlighted.
Blue dollar for November: at what price can it be found?
According to Glustein, the blue dollar will be located around at $1,150 and $1,200with a variation of between 1% and 2%, which is understandable in a very volatile market.
Source: Ambito
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