Real investment grew 14.5% monthly in September, driven by the purchase of imported equipment

Investment in the real economy grew 14.5% monthly in September, mainly driven by the purchase of imported equipment. It happened after the reduction in the PAIS Tax rate for goods acquired abroad.

The data comes from the index of Monthly Gross Domestic Investment (IBIM) from the consultant Orlando Ferreres. According to the seasonally adjusted series, at constant prices (not taking into account the effect of inflation), it was the largest positive variation since Javier Milei was president.

He The great driving force behind the improvement was the division of imported durable production equipment., which showed an extraordinary jump of 66.6% compared to August. It is worth remembering that many companies postponed their foreign trade operations until the ninth month of the year, since the Government had announced that from then on the PAIS Tax for these transactions would drop from 17.5% to 7.5%.

In parallel, the division of Durable domestic production equipment showed an increase of 1.3%while construction rose 1.9%.

The year-on-year decline was reduced

Besides, In year-on-year terms the index registered a fall of 8.3%the most limited variation of the Milei era. When measured in dollars, an investment of US$7,798 million per month is estimated.

Investment in machinery and equipment an annual increase of 3.4% compared to the same month last year, managing to return to positive figures thanks to the 8.5% advance in the sale of national durable equipment, and the decrease in the margin of imported machinery of 0.2% annually, contrasting strongly with the contraction of 42.8% in August.

For its part, Investment in the construction sector contracted 18.6% in Septembershowing a smaller decrease than that of August, but showing greater resistance to a recovery than what can be seen in other sectors. Construction has accumulated a decrease of 24.8% for the last nine months of the year compared to the same period of the previous year.

Investment prospects improve

Despite the improvements, In the nine months of 2024, the IBIM accumulated a contraction of 20.4%. “The improvement in the mood of the markets seems to also translate to investment decisions of the agents. The purchase of domestic durable equipment continues to grow for the third consecutive month, and investment in imported equipment remained practically unchanged compared to last year, after a drop of more than 40% in August,” Ferreres noted.

“In the coming months we hope that the improvement in investment levels will continue, underpinned by money laundering funds, and even more so in the medium term, by the success that the RIGI may have. In any case, we must take into consideration that the continuity of the trap acts as a limiter for capital inflows, so we must moderate expectations,” they added.