In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20. The two main social mechanisms to try to guess if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”, are the polls and the results of the betting houses.
Twice a day, Ámbito will publish the main results – without adding any opinions – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election, and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “ The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
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The bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
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The models
In addition to surveys and bets, there are countless institutions that have developed their own models, collecting countless data and probabilistic algorithms, seeking to predict who will be the next North American president.
One of the best known is the one published by the people of “The Economist”, a medium that is difficult to define as related to Donald Trump.
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What happened since yesterday afternoon
Although he remains the favorite, in the last two days Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency next Tuesday fell 3.6 points to 60.6%, while Kamala Harris’s chances grew 3 points. At this rate – somewhat unlikely – we would reach selection day with him scoring 53.4% and her 44.1%.
In the last twelve hours, the people of RCP decreased the difference in favor of the Republican from 0.5 to 0.3 percentage points (48.4% to 48.1% left) while those of “5.38” narrowed the difference in favor of the Democrat from 1.3 to 1.1 points percentages (they remain at 46.8% to 47.9%).
For The Economist, after 48 hours of parity, Trump once again leads his model, with a chance of winning from 51% to 48%.
See you in the afternoon
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
