In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20.
The two main social mechanisms to try to see if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”are the surveys and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002 Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregatorbeing recognized based on its results for the 2004 election and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year is – through abcNews – under the control of “The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
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The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
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What happened since the morning
Regarding what we saw earlier today, the most notable thing is the slight drop in the chances that bettors assign to Kamala Harris to be the next American president, four tenths to 40.3%, barely capitalized by Donald Trump, whose chance rose by one tenth of 58.3%.
The poll aggregators did not modify their numbers, with RCP assigning 0.3 percentage points more to the Republican and “5.38”, 1.2 points to the Democrat, whom they see as winners in the first case with 48.4% and in the second with 48%.
See you tomorrow morning
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
