The Republican candidate returns to the White House, what were the keys to his victory in what was one of the closest elections in the United States.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House due to victory in the elections has generated extensive analysis on the factors that drove his electoral success in 2024. From an economy marked by inflation and high interest rates, to an electorate loyal to his speech, conditions seemed to be aligned in his favor. This note analyzes five key aspects that explain how Trump managed to regain the support of millions of Americans.
1. The economy: a key issue for the voter
The impact of the pandemic on the US economy has not faded and, under Joe Biden, the inflation reached levels not seen in 40 yearsreaching a 9.1% peak in 2022. To control it, the Federal Reserve applied a policy of increasing rates that made loans and mortgages more expensive, which generated deep discomfort among consumers. In this context, the economic stability of the Trump era, with inflation close to 2%, was perceived as a favorable alternative. According to a Gallup poll from October, 90% of those surveyed indicated the economy as a priority issue when voting, and 54% considered that Trump was more capable of handling it than Kamala Harris.
2. Loyal and new voters: Donald Trump’s solid base
Since his first steps in politics, Trump has managed to build a loyal group of followers, identified with his motto. “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). In this election, his message also resonated with voters from other demographic groups, including young black and Latino men. A study from the University of California, Davis, conducted in 2022, estimated that The MAGA movement represents 33.6% of Republicans and 15% of the US adult population. This group is mainly made up of white people without university education who feel that their opportunities have diminished. With an anti-establishment speech, Trump has positioned himself as the voice of this sector, strengthening it as his support base.
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Courtesy REUTERS
3. Migration and border security
The immigration crisis at the southern border became one of the most controversial issues of Trump’s campaign. During the first three years of Biden administration, 6.3 million people attempted to cross the borderwhich fueled Trump’s speech that the Democratic government had a “open borders” policy. In response, Trump promised seal the borders and carry out the largest deportation in the country’s historythus capturing the attention of voters concerned about security and the effects of immigration. He also criticized Kamala Harris for her role in attempts to address the causes of migration from Central America, something that, in his view, failed.
4. Wars and foreign policy
Trump’s position on foreign policy, aligned with an ideology of “America First”was reinforced by the growing Americans’ fatigue from wars abroad. Trump promised to put end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and assured that it would also resolve the conflict in Gazaalthough without specifying how. This anti-interventionist stance won him support among voters who feel that the country is devoting too many resources to foreign conflicts, especially in times of internal economic crisis.
5. Instability in the Democratic campaign
The Uncertainty surrounding the Democratic nomination also played an important role. Joe Biden initially attempted to run for a second term, but questions grew about his age and mental health. After a challenging debate in June, Biden decided to withdraw, ceding the leadership to Kamala Harris. Although Harris managed to tie in the polls, she had difficulty distancing herself from Biden’s unpopular policies, especially on issues such as inflation and the immigration crisis. Besides, His lack of initial interviews created the impression that he lacked a concrete plan, which negatively impacted his image. and allowed Trump to gain support among undecided voters, including young blacks and Hispanics.
Source: Ambito
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