He global dollar had a small decline after its biggest daily rise since 2022, but remained near four-month highs in the early hours of Thursday after the victory of donald trump in the elections in the United Statesand as investors prepared for various central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve (Fed).
He dollar index —which measures the performance of the greenback in relation to a basket of six other internationally relevant currencies— fell 0.3% at the beginning of the day, reaching 104.84 units after reaching its highest level since July 3 on Wednesday, when it posted its biggest single-day gain since September 2022, an increase of 1.5%.
The move in the currency on Wednesday was as much as a 2% rise, as investors piled into U.S. assets they hope would benefit from Trump’s proposed policies on duty and taxes. For his part, the bitcoin fell 1.2% to $75,025, after reaching an all-time high of $76,499.99.
Analysts, meanwhile, see it as unlikely that the electoral victory of the former Republican president will make an immediate difference for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later in the day. Therefore, investors will begin to analyze who Trump’s key appointees could be, as well as whether their Republican Party wins or not both chambers of the Congress in a “red sweep,” which could determine how easily he can enact some of his proposals.
“If there is, then probably, in the market collectively, we will conclude that he will get more of his fiscal agenda passed. And that could support the dollar,” he told Reuters Jane Foley, foreign exchange strategist Rabobank. “There will be a lot of back and forth to try to determine exactly what the impact of this will be on the inflation and, therefore, how the Federal Reserve. But, generally speaking, I think all of that will certainly be positive for the dollar until 2025,” he said.
More immediately, operators will want the Fed indicate what to expect in December and beyond, particularly after the employment report October last week, which was well below expectations, due in large part to the disruption caused by recent hurricanes and labor strikes.
Trump’s victory has also fueled speculation that the central bank could cut rates at a slower, shallower pace as its policies of restricting illegal immigration and enacting new tariffs could boost inflation. Markets now see around a 67% chance that the Federal Reserve will also cut rates next month, down from 77% on Tuesday, according to the agency’s surveillance tool. Fed of the CME Group.
In Uruguay, the dollar rose in the heat of international events
In Uruguay, meanwhile, the dollar rose 0.49% compared to Tuesday and closed at 41,763 pesos in the interbank price of the Central Bank (BCU), recovering completely from its previous fall and remaining close to the 42 peso range.
The US currency now accumulates a monthly appreciation of 0.27% in November and an annual appreciation of 7.02%, since its price is 2.74 pesos above that registered after the close of the last exchange day of the last year.
Source: Ambito
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