The trade surplus fell in October: imports recorded their first annual increase in almost two years

According to the INDEC this Wednesday, in the tenth month of the year, purchases abroad represented some US$6,128 million4.9% more than in the same month of 2023. Since January of last year, no progress has been seen.

Fundar’s economist, Thomas Canosaattributed the increase in imports to the combination of the exchange rate appreciationthe reduction of the PAIS Tax and tariffs and non-tariff barriers. “Another factor has to do with the economy stopped falling; What most indicators show is that the economy has already found a floor,” he said.

In parallel, the former SME undersecretary explained in dialogue with Scope which was also influenced by the fact that in recent months companies have been getting rid of stocks that they had accumulated in large quantities during the end of 2023 and the beginning of this year, which is why they now have to replenish the merchandise.

The largest year-on-year increase, in percentage terms, was seen in imports of vehicleswhich grew 49.3% year-on-year (+US$106 million). For their part, the consumer goods They experienced an advance of 18.4% (+US$125 million).

Likewise, among the intermediate goods and the capital goods (and its parts) accounted for almost 80% of the total acquisitions to other countries. Between the three uses, they represented an increase of 8.6% (+US$378 million).

At the product level, the main upward variations reported by INDEC were verified in vehicles, both for transporting goods and passengers, soy beans and urea (the main fertilizer used by the agricultural sector).

“When you double click and see where imports are increasing, it is transversal. This can be read as good news because activity stopped falling, but In many cases they occur where there is local productionwhich can generate tensions in terms of employment and destruction of companies,” said Canosa.

Exports recorded their largest increase since 2022

Regarding exports, the year-on-year increase was 30%the highest since April 2022. In this case the impulse was provided mainly by the manufactures of agricultural origin (MOA)which made a jump of 69.7% versus twelve months ago and concentrated more than 40% of sales. The performance of the manufactures of industrial origin (MOI)which increased 22.% and explained 31% of the total.

The exported products that contributed the most to improving the trade balance compared to a year ago (when there was a deficit of US$442 million) were soy flour and oil (almost +US$1,000 million), gold (+US$205 million) and corn (+US$175 million). Shipments of oil, wheat, meat, peanuts and vehicles also improved.

The European Union climbed to second place in the ranking of trading partners

Regarding the main trading partners, Brazil once again remained in the lead. The bilateral exchange with the neighboring country showed annual increases in both exports and imports, which resulted in a new deficit, this time of US$261 million.

The particularity of this month was that the European Union was placed in second placesurpassing both the trade flow with China and the United States. In this case there was a surplus of US$96 million, explained by an extraordinary jump of 76.5% in sales and a decrease of 16.5% in purchases.

The main bilateral “red” was with China (-US$1,055 million). At the far end, The positive balance with Chile stood out (US$450 million)driven mainly by energy exports.

With these numbers, In the accumulated of 2024, the favorable commercial result amounted to US$15,955 million, a record since INDEC has kept records. However, since September the surplus has been shrinking, which raises alarm signals for the short term.