Lecaps vs. CER bonds: which are the market’s favorites in the final stretch of the year

While the latest rate reduction by the Central Bank (BCRA) compressed the yield of National Treasury Bills capitalizable in pesos (LECAPs)many analysts anticipate a slight rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November, which could boost the appetite for CER debt (tied to inflation). Given this, many investors wonder what it is best to invest in in this context.

Juan BialetPersonal Finance Manager at SBS Groupin conversation with Scopedetailed: “One-year fixed rate bonds (Lecaps and Boncaps) already yield 33%, rates have dropped substantially. CER bonds at that term yield +8%“.

“By November, the increase in regulated prices, it is difficult for us to have inflation below 3%although this increase will probably be sought to be moderated for December in order to compensate for increases in food and beverages. Although the projected rates of fixed income instruments and CER seem arbitrated, the battle against inflation is not over yet, so “It seems more attractive to migrate towards inflation-linked coverage”he opined.

In turn, in conversation with this medium, Melina DiNapoliWealth Management Product Analyst at Balanzexpressed that, from this broker, “we re-evaluate the CER debt, although with caution”.

In this regard, he explained that, although implicit inflations, which equalizes the yields of the CER curve with the fixed rate curve, are still very low (around 2% monthly for the first half of 2025 and 1.1% for the second), High frequency data for November indicates acceleration in food prices.

The most attractive CER assets

“This leads us to select CER assets of the short part of the curvethinking about maturities 2025 with yields in the CER zone + 5% nominal annual rate (TNA), just like the Boncer vto. 10/30/2025 (TZXO5) and the Boncer vto. 12/15/2025 (TZXD5),” the expert detailed and, in addition to this choice, she asserted that, “although we like CER bonds for a portfolio in pesos, we prefer stay in short-term instruments”.

The reason for this decision, he explained, is because The market is beginning to perceive that it is getting closer to a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).on the one hand, and, on the other, they see the exit from the stocks as closer, after Minister Caputo’s announcements. “All peso curves should be ‘repriced’ upwards. In this regard, the CER rates at 8-9 seem very low, with the Bonares at 13%”revealed.

Lecaps vs. CER bonds: how each instrument works

Rafael Di Giorno, Proficio analystexplained the substantial differences between both instruments: “They are two different things, the Lecaps are at a fixed rate and today pay a 2.5% monthly rate. If you choose it The move is that inflation is less than that number, or for those who look in dollars, that the peso devalues ​​less than that.”

The choice of CERs, meanwhile, he expressed, is for those who are interested in a yield that protects against inflation. “A month ago it reached 13% above inflation, like TX26, until mid-2026 and Now I think it is 8% above inflation.“he highlighted.