This afternoon, the BCRA will release a new Market Expectations Survey, which will include the forecasts of the main consultants and banks.
He Central Bank (BCRA) will announce this Thursday his last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the year. As always happens, it generates expectations among investors: the official report will include the projections of the city’s main analysts for the dollar, inflation and GDP.
In the previous REMwhich was published a month ago, the main banks and consultants had predicted that the consumer price index (CPI) for October would give 3%. Finally, the official INDEC data, released a few days later, was even lower: it marked 2.7%.
Likewise, analysts had anticipated inflation of 2.9% and for December a rebound to 3.2%. Furthermore, for the first quarter they predicted a gradual decrease until reaching 2.6% in April. That is, at least until that moment, the consultants did not expect 2.5% per month to be drilled.
In short, this afternoon it will be known how these projections varied during the last month, especially after the October CPI was lower than what the previous REM had projected.
REM and expectation for the dollar
The BCRA survey will also include the city’s forecasts for the official dollar. In the last REM, the median of the REM nominal exchange rate projections was located at $1,021 for December, which would imply a increase of 4% for the last two months of the year. That forecast was in line with the current crawling peg of 2% established by the BCRA.
For the next 12 monthsthe REM had projected one dollar at $1,245, what would mean a annual increase of 26.9%lower than the estimated inflation for the same period. This indicates that the market believes that the exchange rate appreciation process will continue.
It remains to be seen if the Javier Milei’s promise to lower the rate of the exchange rate from 2% to 1% monthly in the coming months, if the inflation trend continues, it affects the consultants’ expectations for the slide of the official dollar.
Other data from the BCRA REM
On the other hand, the BCRA report will include projections from banks and consultants for economic activity. In the last survey, the group of REM analysts predicted a drop in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.6% for 2024 compared to the 2023 average. What will the last survey of the year indicate?
The BCRA’s REM will also include relevant forecasts on unemployment, the interest rate, the fiscal result and the trade balance, which will account for the impact on expectations of the news that became known during the last 30 days.
Source: Ambito
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