The blue dollar rebounded after the rate hike: what factors will affect its price in the short term

On the first day of the week, the blue dollar rose $15, after the rate reduction. However, the MEP dollar remained practically stable and the CCL dropped its price. Despite this rebound, market analysts maintain that the outlook will remain bearish for the informal sector, although they anticipate that there could be small jumps in the short term.

The first fortnight of December is characterized by a greater seasonal demand for pesos. Added to this are the daily settlements of exporters, through the blend dollar, along with the attractiveness of local currency rates in a context where dollars have shown a persistent decline (carry trade). These factors explain why, a few days before the end of the year, free contributions register a cumulative increase less than 10%.

With the arrival of the holidays and the half bonus payment which will be finalized on December 18, operators are confident that the outlook may change in the short term.

“What I am seeing these days for me is a seasonal phenomenon that always repeats itself in the first part of December”asserted Gustavo Quintana of PR Operadores de Cambio, and “this happens because the market demands pesos (among other things, for the bonus and the holidays) and that feeds the supply of foreign currency, which causes prices to drop,” he added.

“The second fortnight may present a different panorama, because those who received bonuses, gratuities, advance vacations, can fuel the demand for dollars and consequently prices can react. In any case, from what we can see, The scenario does not present exchange rate tension and I do not believe that the changes are significant. You have to wait, the streaks always end and the markets correct at some point,” Quintana added.

“The disappearance of the exchange rate gap is a very good short-term achievement, but its sustainability is in doubt without deep structural changes. Fiscal consolidation, trade surplus and a consistent exchange rate policy are necessary to avoid the resurgence of exchange rate tensions. Without these measures, the reduction of the gap could be temporary, once again exposing the Argentine economy to risks of devaluation and volatility,” Leo Anzalone, CEPEC, told Ámbito.

Beyond the blue dollar, lThe financial dollars will also have the same dynamics, especially for the blend dollar, which is already receiving criticism for its “finished stage.” of some market operators.

He dollar blend It is one of the main factors that explain part of the daily supply of foreign currency that the financial market receives, and which is about to turn one year old. This measure enables exporters can settle 20% of their sales in the dollar counted with settlement and 80% at the official exchange rate ($1017), in order to encourage settlements. It is a strategy that was maintained by the previous government and that no longer generates the same incentives as it did then because the exchange rate is very close to parallel dollars.

The carry trade phenomenon

Regarding the carry trade, with a flat dollar, 2024 is consolidating itself as the best in the last 32 years in terms of carry tradecommented Nery Persichini of GMA Consultora.

“ With one month left until the end of the year, the carry Through the fixed term it generated a profit of 45%. In this way, 2024 managed to surpass 2003, which had closed at 39.4%. It should be noted that much of the work was done by the reduction of the CCL that followed the beginning of ‘Phase 2’ of the economic program (in mid-July), after reaching $1,400 at the start of the second semester,” he explained. Despite this positive context throughout the year, The profitability of the carry trade fell after the rate reduction announced by the Central Bank.