Artana, one of the most listened to analysts in the market, moderated expectations about an exit from the short-term stocks and warned of risks in the accumulation of reserves.
With the slowdown in inflation and a significant country risk reduction, The Government continues to advance in its objective of exiting the exchange stocks. While waiting to know how this “exit” will take place – whether through a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or with a pact with private actors -, Daniel Artana, one of the most listened to analysts in the city, preferred to moderate expectations. about it.
Although the Central Bank increased its reserves, the economist stated that they still remain negative and that “is one of the reasons why the stocks cannot be lifted immediately.”
“Under normal conditions, that represented between 200 and 300 million dollars per month”he stated. Furthermore, he pointed out that “some dividend payments were made through Bopreal shortly after the inauguration of this Government, and it is possible that some may have paid the dividends using some of the alternative markets.
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For Artana, there may be risks in the exchange market
For this reason, the specialist admitted that “If the stocks are completely eliminated,” all companies that have withheld dividends could receive “an instruction from the parent company to transfer the money abroad.” Although he acknowledged that “it is a disaster” to maintain this restriction on exchange rates, he also pointed out that “it is necessary to have certain reserves to face that eventuality,” he said in statements to Miter radio.
When Javier Milei took office in December of last year, the Central Bank had negative reserves of US$12.5 billion and, according to Artana, the situation regarding the payment of imports was similar. “That was stabilizing. The Central Bank buys many dollars, but it must face the payments of the Treasury debt (mainly),” he added.
According to his analysis, until a “more balanced reserve position” is achieved, there will continue to be “some risk”, which could generate “a significant exchange rate alteration”.
Source: Ambito
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