He adjustment of positions in pesos generated tensions in the market dollarwhich, according to data from a recent report on the monetary and financial situation, adds pressure on the financial dollarsomething that already happened in the middle of the year.
As for the behavior of the dollar in 2025, The consulting firm LCG highlighted that after a period of calm since mid-July, the last few weeks brought new tensions in the exchange market, which forced the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) to intervene again to contain the rise of free dollars.
This increase in financial dollars (with the MEP dollar today below $1,200) considerably reduced the gains obtained in the last two months through the carry trade.
In a December in which it was expected that the Seasonal increase in the demand for pesos will contribute to reducing dollars financial, the perception that devaluation expectations would not decrease enough to offset the lower rates It allowed the adjustment of positions in pesos and the dollarization of portfolios, according to LCG.
Furthermore, they pointed out that the impact of the bonuswhich increases the seasonal demand for foreign currency, and the purchases of dollars by companies to compensate for a possible fiscal loss (due to the difference in price between the official dollar and the MEP) before the end of the year, could have generated something of pressure, although they consider that this effect was marginal.
Can the dollar continue to rise?
In this scenario, the consulting firm warned that there are some “factors that could push the gap up.” Among them, he mentions that President Javier Milei A few days ago, he revealed his concern about the effects of a (possible) exchange rate delay on some sectors and the successive rate cuts (from 3.3% to 2.9% monthly on 1/11 and from 2.9% to 2.7% on 6/12).
In addition, it mentions “the extension of deadlines for liquidating exports and the increase in the maximum amounts that service exporters may not enter” among the warning factors.
Regarding an exchange delay, from LCG they affirm that “a 29% correction in the value of the official dollar so that it recovers the real level of December 2021, a threshold that the IMF determined as a benchmark in the Extended Facilities agreement signed by the previous administration,” they warn.
Source: Ambito
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