He National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will release this Tuesday, December 14, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which would once again be below 3%, ending 2024 around 118%, almost 100 percentage points below the 2023 record and the forecast initially predicted for the period analyzed.
After having drilled 3% in October, presenting a rise of 2.7% year-on-year, and deepen the trend in November by showing an increase of 2.4%, being the lowest level in the last four years, analysts estimate that the inflation index in December would have reflected a similar pace in the increase in prices to the previous month.
The Government and private consultants hope that the measurement that the INDEC will disseminate This Tuesday it will be less than 3%, although there is no certainty that it will be enough to mark a new slowdown.
Inflation: what is the expectation of analysts
He Survey of Market Expectations (REM), prepared by the Central Bank based on private estimates, calculated that lInflation in the last month of 2024 reached 2.7% and reduced the forecast for the price increase that was recorded during the twelve months of last year to 117.8%, compared to 120% in the previous month.
When taking this measurement as a reference, a strong reduction is observed in the projection drawn up at the end of 2023 for last year, since the estimate gave an inflation of 213.0% year-on-year, 95 percentage points less than that predicted in the last report. .
As an advance payment, Inflation in the City of Buenos Aires last month reached 3.3%, one tenth more than in November, when it had equaled the October measurement, generating a brake on the disinflation process. With the slight acceleration, the price variation in the Buenos Aires territory ended 2024 with a cumulative 136.7%.
The Equilibra report indicated that monthly inflation reached 2.6%, registering the main increases in housing, water, electricity, education, and restaurants and hotels. lThe interannual variation reached 118% during the final calendar.
The survey of retail prices by the consulting firm C&T for the Greater Buenos Aires region presented a monthly increase of 2.8% in December, somewhat above the 2.6% in November but a little less than initially estimated.
Meanwhile, they estimated that “if this monthly variation were applied to the INDEC national CPI, the year would close with an inflation of 118%, substantially lower than the 211% in 2023.”
EcoGo Consultores, for its part, predicted that inflation last month reached 2.9%, with an average variation in food and beverages that climbed to 3%, 0.2 pp above what was recorded the previous month, “driven largely by the rebound at the beginning of the month in the price of beef, which increased 9.7% in the month after a jump in the first week and then moderated in the remaining three “.
The aforementioned consulting firm analyzed the behavior of prices during the last 31 days of the year, emphasizing that “the seasonality of summer vacations and festivals betrayed consumption and rising prices in December.”
Meanwhile, the Libertad y Progreso Foundation assured that inflation last month was 2.5%.
In this way, 2024 closed with an inflation of 117.3%, presenting a deceleration of 94 points compared to the 211.4% accumulated in 2023.
Source: Ambito
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