The inflation of December was 2.7%, it accelerated compared to November, but the Government still had enough data to lower the rate of devaluation of the official dollarso the “crawling peg” will reduce in February from 2% monthly to 1%, to pressure the fall of prices. Given this, the experts chose their investment strategies.
“The inflation data for December and the reduction in the pace of the crawling peg to 1% generate a context of lower exchange rate pressurewhich can open opportunities in different areas of investment,” he told Scope, Gabriel Bagattinifinancial advisor.
For this expert, within what is fixed income in pesos we must be attentive to the fact that we have tenders from the Ministry of Economy, which will be two National Treasury Bills Capitalizable in Pesos (LECAP) with maturities on July 31, 2025 (S31L5) and October 31, 2025 (S31O5), a new Capitalizable National Treasury Bond in Pesos due June 30, 2026 (T30J6), and a National Treasury Bond in Pesos adjusted by CER to 2027 (TZXM7).
On the other hand, he mentioned, actions of export sectors since “sectors such as agroindustrial or export-oriented technology companies could remain competitive and benefit from exchange rate stability.” And in turn, he named the Common Investment Funds (FCI) that invest in short-term or inflation-linked fixed income instruments can offer attractive returns with lower risk, especially in a scenario of positive real interest rates.
In his analysis, Pablo LazzatiCEO of Insider Financesaid that while market estimates for December inflation were 2.5%; “this figure of 2.7% that was recently announced remains in a close range, being then a positive advertisement“.
“To take advantage of this scenario of crawling and stable inflation and anticipating a potential drop in TNA, The Lecaps that expires in May (S16Y5 with 32% TEA today) is a good conservative investment alternative for the short/medium term. And for more moderate ones, a Lecap maturing in August (S29G5 with 29.31% TEA today) is our recommendation,” he recommended.
December inflation accelerated: what to do with the pesos?
Experts maintain that given this scenario, having pesos without investing generates losses in purchasing power. Therefore, since since IOL investonline consider positioning themselves in Lecaps and in CER bonds (adjustable for inflation), since they maintained that it represents “the best option to protect value against inflation considering low-risk fixed income assets and in the face of a possible change in exchange rate policy in the medium term.”
In this regard, they selected some alternatives such as Lecap S28F5 (Short Term) that expires on February 28, which leaves an investment period of 44 days and its yield is 2.6%. “This yield is expected to be above inflation for the next two months. In turn, if the BCRA decided to proceed with a new reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate, this asset would benefit,” they added.
He CER TZX25 bonus (Medium Term) that matures in June 2025 and adjusts its capital for inflation through the CER coefficient and amortizes in full at maturity. “This alternative is excellent to cover a scenario where inflation does not decrease at the rate expected by the market (1.5% on average for the first semester),” they explained. It yields CER+2.6% annually, and has a duration of 0.45 years.
Lastly, the bonus CER TZX26 (Long Term), which expires in June 2026. This option is designed for a more aggressive profile, since the TZX26 “could grant a higher capital gain,” this broker explained. Yield CER+6.5% annually, and has a duration of 1.37 years.
In turn from Balanzexplained: “The CPI for December was in line with expectations. The CPI was 2.7% m/m, above the 2.4% in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 117.8%. In this framework, the Outstanding instruments to make the chosen weights perform are, CER bonds maturing in 2025 and March 2026: T2X5, T2XO5 and TZXM6″.
Source: Ambito
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