The financial analyst Salvador Di Stefano, known as the “blue dollar guru“, shared his economic outlook for 2025 in relation to the dollar and the Argentine peso. Within the framework of a downward inflationary context, he anticipated important movements in the exchange and monetary policy led by the Central Bank (BCRA).
A dollar with a lower rate of devaluation
Di Stefano noted that dollar future contracts suggest a slowdown in the rate of peso devaluation, commonly known as the “crawling peg.” According to the analyst, this change would be aligned with the downward trend in inflation in recent months. “The Central Bank will probably make an announcement to lower the interest rate and devaluate”he stated in a radio interview.
Recently, The BCRA reduced the pace of the “crawling peg” from 2% to 1% monthlya decision that reinforces Di Stefano’s forecast that there will be further adjustments in rates to stabilize the official exchange rate.
Inflation and economic outlook
In relation to inflation, the specialist projects that it could be around 24% annually in 2025which would allow maintaining a positive real interest rate close to the 15%.
This scenario would be key to strengthening the peso and reducing pressures on the exchange market. However, Di Stefano warns that low inflation does not necessarily translate into an immediate improvement in costs for companies, which face difficulties in areas such as services and energy.
Economic recovery and structural challenges
The analyst highlighted positive indicators such as the growth of the Industrial Production Index, which showed a year-on-year increase in 9.3%suggesting a recovery in economic activity. However, he clarified that higher sales do not always mean higher profits due to increased costs. According to their analysis, services, which represent a significant part of the retail inflation index, are experiencing significant adjustments, while wages have not grown at the pace necessary to cover these costs.
What to expect from the blue dollar?
Although the blue dollar has shown some stability in recent weeks, Di Stefano considers that its price will be conditioned by government policy and investment flows. “The stabilization of the dollar will depend on the success of measures to reduce internal costs and attract capital,” he concluded.
With these perspectives, 2025 promises to be a year of economic adjustments where exchange stability will play a key role in consolidating growth and fighting inflation.
Source: Ambito
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