He market corrected downwards its projections on the value of the dollar,that would end the month near its current level and the year below 46 pesos, according to the analysts consulted monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
The latest Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) of the BCU, published this Friday, reflected a decrease of 0.79% in the exchange rate scheduled for the end of the month compared to what was expected for the same point in December, standing at 44 pesos.
Meanwhile, the greenback would reach 44.81 pesos in June and end the year at 45.75 pesos, which is 0.54% less than last month’s forecasts, when analysts expected a dollar at 46 pesos.
Thinking about the coming years, the median response placed the exchange rate at 47.60 pesos by the end of 2026 and reaching 48.90 pesos by the end of 2027.
At the same time, the EEE anticipated a slight growth in GDP, which would reach 3.20% in 2024, ten basis points more than in the previous measurement, while it remained at 2.5% for this year and 2.4% for 2026.
Inflation expectations, near the ceiling of the target range
In parallel, the Inflation Expectations Survey reflected that analysts expect a CPI of 1.30% this month, which raises the semiannual forecasts to 3.75% from the previous 3.53%, while the rest remain within the target range, although very close to the ceiling. in line with other forecasts.
Thus, the median response reflected a inflation of 5.70% for this year, a reduction of five basis points compared to last month, while the indicator would reach 5.90% in 2026, six basis points less than expected in December.
Source: Ambito
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