Just over three weeks ago, the BCRA announced the beginning of a process of recalibrating its monetary policy, which included a rise of two percentage points of the reference interest rate of the Liquidity Letters (Leliq) at 28 days, which went from 38 to 40% per year, thus increasing the return offered by banks for fixed-term deposits, and seeking to appease the pressure on the dollar, but also trying to stop the inflationary inertia.
Thus, the Central ordered on January 6 that the yield paid by banks for fixed terms goes to a floor of 39% per year, from the previous 37%, for 30-day deposits for individuals (up to $10 million). ), while for companies the guaranteed minimum rate was set at 37% per year, from the previous 35%.
Seeking to bring flow from interest-bearing liabilities to Treasury bonds, it also eliminated seven-day Passes and created a new 180-day Leliq with a 44% rate. The measure was in line with the goals agreed with the IMF of reduce issuance (to the challenging 1% of GDP in 2022) and increase Treasury financing via debt in pesos.
For Econoviews, the recent increase in the interest rate was a measure that “not only had little taste, but had almost no effect. By not touching the overnight rate and lowering the 7-day passes, the banks did not increase what who pay for remunerated accounts, where institutional money is housed and therefore ended up encouraging cash with liquidation”.
Of course, by raising rates again, there will at the same time be an impact on the cost of financing for companies and individuals, which may condition the level of consumption and the process of economic reactivation that began last year, after the blow received in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to several analysts, in the first month of the year, inflation not only did not stop its upward march, but could even have accelerated slightly, compared to the levels of December. According to different private consultants, food pushed upwards so that the Consumer Price Index approached 4% during January, after the 3.8% registered in the last month of 2021.
As of today, 30-day retail fixed terms pay a monthly interest of 3.25% (previously it was 3.07%), with which for now are located below monthly inflation, which in the first quarter is expected to mark an average of 3.5%.
Source: Ambito
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